An outlook on Romania's imports and exports.
Romania’s trade deficit in 2015 stood at 8.37 billion euros, by 2.31 billion more than in 2014, according to a recent report issued by the National Statistics Institute. Exports went up by 4.1%, standing at 54.6 billion euros, while imports also went up by 7.6%, reaching 62.97 billion euros. The value of intra-community trade of commodities in 2015 stood at 40.24% billion euros for supply of goods and at 48.58 for the import of goods, accounting for 73.7% of the total level of exports and for 77.2% of the total level of imports.
The extra-community trade of goods in 2015 stood at 14.36 billion euros in terms of exports and at 14.38 billion euros in terms of imports, i.e. 26.3% of the total value of exports and 22.8% of the total value of imports. Last year a substantial share of the imported and exported goods was represented by the car and transport equipment sectors, as well as other manufactured goods. Here is economic analyst Aurelian Dochia with further details:
“We must note a slowdown in the growth pace for exports which has been there for quite some time, and which is otherwise normal, given the current European context. There is also a lot of talk that domestic consumption in Romania needs to absorb part of the positive influence that exports had on economic growth so far. Indeed, domestic consumption did its job, so to say, because it had a very high growth pattern. As regards exports, I think the good performance of the services sector is also worth mentioning. Whereas the increase of commodity exports was moderate, the exports of services, transport services in particular, had a very good evolution, which means that Romania is becoming a major provider of transport services in the European Union. It’s a good development, all the more so as several years ago the trade levels in our services sector was below par. It’s a good sign that we managed to have a surplus in this field too”.
In turn, the chief economic analyst of the National Bank of Romania, Valentin Lazea, believes Romania’s recipe for a successful economy should revolve around the strengths that have helped Visegrad states overcome the global crisis more easily.
“The winners of the last economic recession were the countries that had sophisticated exports, in other words which exported more than just raw materials. And by sophisticated I mean not only the export of goods, but also of services. The countries that exported more than they imported, such as Poland, Hungary and other Visegrad states, had a lot to gain, thanks to this current account surplus, while those countries with current account deficits, such as Brazil or Nigeria, were on the losing end of the struggle to overcome the recession, mainly because they were primarily exporting raw material. I, for one, believe Romania is somewhere in between. We can go up, but that would mean accepting the idea that Romania too can and must have a current account surplus, which Romanian elites have always dismissed. We can be what some Visegard states were, namely the production workshop of Germany, Austria and other Western states, we can walk this trail of experience”.
Valentin Lazea argues that Romania should develop by means of exports and investment and not through domestic consumption, because otherwise it risks the deterioration of its current account and further difficulties in finding the means to finance it. Romania also runs the risk of getting entangled in the middle income trap, usually describing states that have seen a rise in their GDP per capita but subsequently have lost their competitive edge.
The Secretary General of the Romanian Association of Exporters and Importers, Mihai Ionescu, described the changes that the structure of exports underwent during the economic crisis:
“The crisis was a good lesson for Romania, for two reasons. First, it brought about a change in our country’s trade offer. Before the crisis, Romania’s best performing export sectors were iron and steel, petro-chemistry and the light industries. After the crisis, these three sectors went down. The electric, electronics and IT industry is now in first place, the car-making sector comes second and the auto parts and equipment manufacturing industry is now in third place. That’s the first aspect. In terms of geographic positioning, the same crisis was a reality check for Romania. Our country must not rely completely and constantly on the European market, which is presently the destination of three quarters of Romania’s export volume. Both the state-owned and the private sector looked to other geographic areas, outside the EU, where the trade balance has been positive for months. In other words, Romania is competitive in several areas across the world. We have demonstrated our competitive ability, and proved we can do better. We are also channeling our efforts towards the Russia and Chinese markets, to the markets in Northern, Eastern, Western Africa and Southeast Asia. These are all areas where Romanian products have a powerful impact”.
The countries with the largest share in Romania’s exports right now are Germany, Italy, France, Turkey, Hungary, Bulgaria, Great Britain and Spain, while most imports are coming in from Germany, Italy, Hungary, France, China, the Russian Federation, Austria and the Netherlands.
(Translated by V. Palcu)
Useful Links
Copyright © . All rights reserved