{"id":155287,"date":"2015-11-06T13:36:00","date_gmt":"2015-11-06T11:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/devrri.freshlemon.ro\/news-and-current-affairs\/newsflash\/how-predictable-are-earthquakes-155287.html"},"modified":"2024-02-19T15:35:06","modified_gmt":"2024-02-19T13:35:06","slug":"how-predictable-are-earthquakes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rri.ro\/en\/features-and-reports\/the-future-starts-today\/how-predictable-are-earthquakes-id155287.html","title":{"rendered":"How Predictable Are Earthquakes?"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p>This statement belongs to honorary&#13;<br \/>\ndirector of the Earth Physics Institute, Gheorghe Marmureanu, who recalled that&#13;<br \/>\nVrancea, the most seismically active area of Romania, produces annually 8 to 12&#13;<br \/>\nearthquakes of around 4 points on the Richter scale. According to Gheorghe Marmureanu, Vrancea is unique in the world. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>Gheorghe Marmureanu: I looked&#13;<br \/>\nat Vrancea, which is a special system, totally different from anything in the&#13;<br \/>\nworld, even if you could say that the Hindukush in the Himalayas is similar. It&#13;<br \/>\nmay have strong earthquakes at great depth, but they don&#8217;t have the same&#13;<br \/>\nmanifestation. There is something similar in the north east of Colombia. I&#13;<br \/>\nlooked at everything that occurred in the last 600 years in Romania. For the&#13;<br \/>\nlast 300 years of activity I saw what earthquakes caused loss of life and&#13;<br \/>\nmaterial goods &#8211; in the 312 years I have analyzed there were 5 great&#13;<br \/>\nearthquakes that caused loss of life and damage.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>A tremor closer to the surface, meaning&#13;<br \/>\nless than 100 km, has effects towards Bucharest, Bulgaria and Serbia, they are&#13;<br \/>\ntremors directing destructive energy in those directions. Deeper tremors get&#13;<br \/>\ndirected mostly towards Moldova and Ukraine. There is an alternation of surface&#13;<br \/>\nand deep tremors, and by this logic, Marmureanu said that a quake oriented towards&#13;<br \/>\nthe northwest would occur sometime in 2040, because the one in March 1977 was a&#13;<br \/>\nsurface tremor. There is the possibility that it will not occur even then,&#13;<br \/>\nbecause in 1986 in Vrancea there was a 6.9 magnitude earthquake that did not do&#13;<br \/>\nany damage, but released a lot of energy. The Earth is a living system, in&#13;<br \/>\ncontinuous transformation, says Gheorghe Marmureanu. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>Gheorghe Marmureanu: We have the great African rift, developing&#13;<br \/>\nday by day. The waters in the Red Sea have already run into the rift. Africa&#13;<br \/>\nwill one day break up, as it shifts upwards. The south and east of Africa will&#13;<br \/>\ndislocate and form another continent with Madagascar. We don&#8217;t see it, but&#13;<br \/>\nAmerica moves further away from Europe every year by 45 to 55 mm. Everything is&#13;<br \/>\nalive. Below us, between 110 to 200 km and 3000 km, there is magma. Magma is&#13;<br \/>\nnot still, it moves. The upper magma cools, the lower magma is hot, there are&#13;<br \/>\nconvection currents in some places from left to right, in other places from&#13;<br \/>\nright to left. Above the magma are tectonic plates. There are 16 tectonic&#13;<br \/>\nplates, and at the places they meet, across their thickness, which is 80 to 100&#13;<br \/>\nkm, there are non-linear phenomena that cannot be controlled.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>Earthquakes have different causes, 98% of them are tectonic and&#13;<br \/>\nsuperficial. The tectonic plates, which have various thickness and sizes,&#13;<br \/>\ninteract. The greatest tectonic plate is the Pacific one, the Eurasian one,&#13;<br \/>\nwhich runs from the mid-Atlantic to the Barents Sea, next to others such as the&#13;<br \/>\nPhilippine one, the Pacific plate, the North American plate, and all these&#13;<br \/>\nfloat on magma, a melting substance where earthquakes cannot occur, because for&#13;<br \/>\nearthquakes a crystalline structure is needed, as explained by Gheorghe&#13;<br \/>\nMarmureanu. Earthquakes need a crystalline structure, a structure that can&#13;<br \/>\nstore potential energy that it releases later. In Romania, tremors do not occur&#13;<br \/>\nbecause one plate slides against another, it is a system of continental&#13;<br \/>\ncollision. So how predictable earthquakes really are? <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>Gheorghe Marmureanu: Earthquakes are earthquakes. If they would&#13;<br \/>\nbe predictable they would be controllable, which we cannot do in fact. They&#13;<br \/>\noccur anywhere and anytime on this earth.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>However, Romania has set up a system of real time tremor warning.&#13;<br \/>\nProfessor Marmureanu said about this system: <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>Gheorghe Marmureanu: Our system has been granted an award by the&#13;<br \/>\nEuropean Community, it is a system that allows for the magnitude of the tremor&#13;<br \/>\nto be established in four seconds. If the system reveals a 7-egree tremor, then&#13;<br \/>\nall users go on alert, all the areas with a major risk in case of earthquake.&#13;<br \/>\nIt is the only system in the world, aside from the Japanese one.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<p>In the event of an earthquake, at risk installations get blocked&#13;<br \/>\nautomatically, and 30 seconds before the earthquake occurs, state institutions&#13;<br \/>\nand the Committee for States of Emergency get alerted.<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u2018We should not expect a devastating earthquake in Romania before 2040, with most of them until then reaching no more than 5.7 points on the Richter scale, which presents no major risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":108,"featured_media":155288,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43939],"tags":[37384,35795,30947],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-155287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-future-starts-today","tag-earthquakes","tag-risk","tag-vrancea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How Predictable Are Earthquakes? 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