In last week’s
\nedition we analysed together with the director of the Conflict Prevention
\nCentre in Bucharest, Iulian Chifu, the possible impact of such events as the
\ninauguration of the new US president Donald Trump, the UK vote to leave the
\nEuropean Union and the upcoming elections in France. Today we continue our
\nanalysis with another series of events, taking a look ahead at the elections in
\nGermany and the Netherlands and the situation in Syria. <\/p>\n
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In the upcoming
\nGerman elections this year, chancellor Angela Merkel will be seeking her fourth
\nterm in office. The announcement was made in late 2016 at a meeting of Merkel’s
\nparty, CDU. The announcement was made amidst growing calls for her to resign
\ncoming mainly from the hard-line opponents of the refugee admission policy
\npursued by the German chancellor, in particular the Alternative for Germany
\nparty. Such voices accuse the German authorities of losing control over
\nmigration. However, according to the latest data, last year saw a radical
\ndecrease in the number of migrants seeking asylum in Germany. Official figures
\nshow that 280,000 asylum seekers arrived in Germany last year compared with
\nnearly 900,000 in 2015. In spite of the significant drop reported last year,
\nthe country is still facing many challenges. The number of asylum applications
\namounts to hundreds of thousands, and the German government should prove that
\nit is capable of perfectly integrating the migrants whose applications are approved.
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How important
\nare the elections in Germany to Europe and what chances does the current
\nchancellor have? Professor Iulian Chifu, the
\ndirector of the Conflict Prevention Centre in Bucharest, explains: <\/p>\n
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Of course, this
\nis a very important element because we’re speaking about Germany, the driving
\nengine of Europe, and, under the circumstances, the situation is more special.
\nThere is still a major possibility for the left-right coalition between the SPD
\nand the CDU to find a way for Ms Merkel to stay on as chancellor. We’ve also
\nseen a rise of the far right. However, we shouldn’t count our chickens before
\nthey’re hatched. We have seen on many occasions, such as Brexit and the US
\nelections, that things don’t always turn out as planned and we may still see
\nsome surprises. <\/p>\n
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Legislative
\nelections will also be held this year in The Netherlands, where, as a result of
\npeople’s discontent with the way in which immigration has been handled, the
\npopulist far-right Party for Freedom is leading in opinion polls. Its leader
\nGeert Wilders has unveiled an election programme promising the
\nde-Islamisation of the country and calling for mosques to be closed down and
\nfor migration from Muslim countries to be banned. The publications Die Welt and
\nExpress note that the party’s political programme also provides for the closing
\nof Muslim schools and the banning of the Quran and of the Islamic veil. The
\nDutch elections are important for Bucharest first and foremost with regard to
\nRomania’s accession to the Schengen passport-free area. Initially scheduled for
\nMarch 2011, this has been postponed several times, mainly as a result of The
\nNetherlands’ firm opposition, despite the fact that Romania had fulfilled its
\naccession requirements. <\/p>\n
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We asked Iulian
\nChifu if anything might change in this respect:<\/p>\n
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The Dutch
\nelections will most likely maintain the trend that has seen eurosceptic parties
\nin the ascendance, so the likelihood that the Netherlands will make any steps
\nforward is quite low. One positive element is the way in which this country
\nmanaged to find a way to solve the issue of the ratification of the EU-Ukraine
\nassociation agreement. In this sense, we might think that beyond this agreement
\nor the Dutch elections, we may arrive at a European agreement that could also favour
\nRomania. However, considering the situation in the Schengen area and the
\nreticence with respect to migration, I believe the subject [of Romania’s
\nSchengen accession] is closed for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n
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With regard to
\nthe situation in Syria and Russia’s involvement in this conflict, political
\ncommentator Iulian Chifu said:<\/p>\n
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Naturally,
\nSyria is a subject that cannot be closed very soon. We have seen that the
\nattempts to solve the problem in the short-term, to reach a truce, have failed.
\nEspecially as these were partial agreements, reached in the presence of a
\nnumber of the states involved directly or through their nationals or who
\ncontrol certain opposition groups on the ground. Russia is trying to impose a
\ncertain type of solution, as it has done in Ukraine and Georgia. I believe this
\ntype of exceptionalist and individualist approach cannot possibly yield
\nresults.<\/p>\n
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The solution
\nmust be inclusive, says Iulian Chifu, who recalls that there are still some
\nvery important dossiers to be solved, such as the massacres in Aleppo, the use
\nof banned weapons and the violations of human rights. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A look ahead at the upcoming elections in Germany and the Netherlands and the situation in Syria with commentator Iulian Chifu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":108,"featured_media":54092,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43939],"tags":[29749,28988,29281],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-155630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-future-starts-today","tag-germany","tag-netherlands","tag-syria"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n