The European Bank for
\nReconstruction and Development (EBRD) has substantially improved its estimate
\non Romania’s economic performance for this year, and in a recent report it expects
\na 7.2% growth rate as opposed to the 6% estimated in June.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
Further on, in 2022, the
\nEuropean funds earmarked under the Recovery and Resilience Plan are expected to
\nlead to an increase in investments and improvement of exports, which jointly
\nwith the predicted fiscal consolidation and the slow-down in private
\nconsumption may translate into a GDP growth by over 4%. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
However, EBRD cautions
\nthat these forecasts are rather tentative. The main risk, as far as Romania is
\nconcerned, is the pandemic, given that the country has the second-lowest
\nvaccination rate in the EU. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
Other risk factors are
\nthe high prices for natural gas and oil, because Romania, just like other
\ncountries, is forced to offset the high electricity expenses for low-income
\nhouseholds. Other alarm signs are related to possible disruptions in supply
\nchains, and the depreciation of the national currency. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
According to the
\ninternational financial institution, 3 south-eastern EU member states-Greece,
\nRomania and Bulgaria-are currently seeing a significant economic recovery,
\nafter a rather difficult year 2020. In Romania’s case, domestic demand is the
\nmain engine for growth. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
On the other hand, the high prices for raw
\nmaterials may undermine the post-pandemic recovery of European economies, insofar
\nas they strongly affect the trade balance of energy-importing countries like
\nRomania.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
According to the report,
\nthe high energy prices may be a test of the public’s support for a greener
\nfuture. While global support was strong and growing in the past few years, in
\nsome economies, including Egypt, Lithuania, Kazakhstan, Poland and Romania the
\nsupport rate is lower than in the late 1990s. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
According to EBRD,
\neconomies in the region will see an average growth rate of 5.5% in 2021, which
\naccounts for a 1.3% upgrade since the bank’s June forecasts. In 2022, as
\neconomies recover, the rate will slow down to an average 3.8%. These forecasts
\ncome with a high uncertainty element, given the risks entailed by the Covid-19
\npandemic, by a possible worsening of international circumstances and a more
\nmodest growth rate among the main trade partners. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
The EBRD was set up in
\n1991 to invest in former communist states and assist them in the transition to a
\nfree market economy. After the fall of the communist regime in 1989, EBRD became
\na major investor in Romania, where it focuses on funding infrastructure, improving
\nproductivity and consolidating the financial sector. So far the institution has
\ninvested nearly 9 billion euros in the Romanian economy, three-quarters of
\nwhich went into the private sector. (tr. A.M. Popescu)<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EBRD predicts economic growth for Romania this year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":106,"featured_media":87885,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37738],"tags":[29081,34104,35171,31693,29615,35403,35476],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-90258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-today-in-the-news","tag-ebrd","tag-economic","tag-forecast","tag-gdp","tag-growth","tag-rate","tag-recovery"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n