In May this year the National Bank of Romania forecast
\na 12.5% inflation rate for the end of this year and 6.7% for the end of next
\nyear. Three months later, estimates were pointing to higher figures, i.e. 13.9%
\nfor 2022 and 7.5% for end 2023.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
These days, the central bank came up with new figures,
\nand adjusted its inflation forecast to 16.3% for this year and 11.2% for next
\nyear, with the rate expected to go down to around 4% in September 2024. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
Price increases have slowed down in the last few
\nmonths, central bank experts say, but significant differences compared to last
\nyear will remain. According to the National Bank’s quarterly inflation report,
\nmade public on Monday, a decrease in inflation will depend on a number of variables,
\nparticularly the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the developments
\nrelated to raw materials, energy and food prices. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
Governor Mugur Is\u0103rescu: As far as the war in Ukraine
\nis concerned, our position is, so to say, slightly positive, although not fully
\noptimistic. The effects of the war will be gradually mitigated, we do not
\nexpect major declines. As for raw materials, data indicate prices are beginning
\nto settle. Bottlenecks in global value-added chains are likely to dwindle,
\nthere are no indications of a resurgence of COVID infections, and the
\nmacroeconomic policy mix is positive. So far we’ve worked well with the
\ngovernment and the normalisation of the monetary policy continues. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
Mugur Is\u0103rescu also said that key interest rate
\nincreases in Romania have been comparable to the measures taken by other
\ncentral banks in the region. Interest rates are not very high in Romania
\ncompared to other countries, and the national currency is one of the most
\nstable in the region, the governor explained, and added that, had the currency
\ndepreciation put further pressure on the inflation, the situation would have
\nbeen a lot more difficult, as we see in Hungary, for example.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
In Romania, interest rates have been raised gradually,
\nand the central bank sought to allow time for those who had taken out loans in
\nthe national currency to get used to the new levels and with the fact that the
\nage of negative or very small interest rates is over, Mugur Is\u0103rescu
\npointed out. The central bank official also voiced confidence that next year Romania’s
\neconomy will only see slower growth, rather than technical recession, i.e. two
\nconsecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but that this mainly depends on
\nthe government’s ability to attract EU funding. (AMP)<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Although in October the year-on-year inflation dropped a little, the National Bank expects it to continue to rise<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":108,"featured_media":93113,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37738],"tags":[34104,28918,29615,35659,29488,35231,28905],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-93772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-today-in-the-news","tag-economic","tag-energy","tag-growth","tag-increase","tag-inflation","tag-price","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n