{"id":973771,"date":"2026-01-23T14:00:30","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T12:00:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rri.ro\/?p=973771"},"modified":"2026-01-23T14:58:52","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T12:58:52","slug":"could-2026-be-the-year-of-peace-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rri.ro\/en\/features-and-reports\/the-future-starts-today\/could-2026-be-the-year-of-peace-in-ukraine-id973771.html","title":{"rendered":"Could 2026 be the year of peace in Ukraine?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">For almost four years, the military conflict in Ukraine has caused immense suffering and significant loss of human life, and sanctions and negotiations are yet to lead to the end to the confrontation. The war has changed individual destinies, but also the map of European security, affecting international relations. It is no longer just a military confrontation, but it also affects supply chains and is a source of energy insecurity, political fatigue and pressure on the international order. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Could 2026 be the year of peace in Ukraine? For now, the conflict seems to have entered a phase of attrition, in which the human, economic and political costs are huge. The data show that both sides are in an advanced state of exhaustion, but not in the same way and not with the same strategic consequences, says university professor and foreign policy analyst \u0218tefan Ciochinaru: <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u201c<span style=\"font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">Ukraine is in a state of critical exhaustion, but not <\/span><\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">on the verge of <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">collaps<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">ing<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">. Ukraine continues to adapt, it is resisting, but the human cost is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">As for R<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">ussia, <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">it experiencing <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">slow exhaustion, but it <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">still feels it <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">can win th<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">is<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> war of attrition. Thus, despite the sanctions and losses, the Kremlin <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">still views<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> the war <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">as being <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">sustainable in the medium term, and believes that it can defeat Ukraine in a conflict of attrition. The exhaustion <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">is there<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">, but it is not perceived as an immediate strategic threat. Please note that I am talking about perceptions, and I am not <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">speaking about<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> Russia, but <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">about<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> the Kremlin. In fact, it\u2019<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">s <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">about Putin, Putin&#8217;s perception and his conviction that he can win a war of attrition. Under these conditions, the war will most likely not end in 2026, but <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">will turn into a less intense, <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">prolonged phase, which is <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">precisely<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> the sign of a conflict that has entered the phase of structural exhaustion. Although both sides are exhausted, neither is <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">so <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">exhausted <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">as<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> to accept major concessions. It is likely that in 2026 we will not witness a rupture, but rather a dangerous convergence, I would say, of military, financial and political pressures. Because Ukraine cannot give in without existential gu<span style=\"color: #000000;\">arantees, Russia does not want to negotiate without significant territorial gains, and the West is not yet willing to <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">push for<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> a solution. My conclusion is that the war is in an advanced stage of exhaustion, but not in a terminal phase.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">If we look carefully at what is happening, we see that there are many signs that 2026 is rather a milestone in a prolonged global conflict, says university professor \u015etefan Ciochinaru. <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">However, w<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">ow would a possible peace <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">deal <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">in 2026 change Europe&#8217;s security architecture and international relations in<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">\u00a0general<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">? Broadly speaking, there are three scenarios: peace with strong guarantees for Ukraine; a ceasefire, a frozen conflict; <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">or <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">an imposed agreement, dictated to Ukraine, or, in other words, favorable<\/span> to Russia, explains \u015etefan Ciochinaru<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"color: #26282a;\">\u201c<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">H<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">ow the security architecture changes depends <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">significantly<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> on which of these three scenarios <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">comes to happen<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">. It\u2019<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">s<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> clear that Europe can no longer remain in ambiguity. <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">It e<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">ither integrates Ukraine into its structures, the European Union, possibly NATO or something very close, or it remains with a gray area, extremely unstable <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">on its<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> border. If peace were to bring solid guarantees for Ukraine, then we would probably see a much more influential Eastern bloc within the EU and we would see mechanisms in which a group of European states <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">will take on<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> commitments <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">relating to<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> defen<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">c<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">e, military assistance and long-term reconstruction. In any case, NATO remains the central pillar of European security. <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"><b>I<\/b><\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">n the event of a peace <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">deal <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">with serious guarantees for K<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">yiv<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">, NATO itself will have to decide whether Ukraine formally joins the alliance or whether it receives bilateral guarantees, plus prepositioning of capabilities. Another <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">aspect to look at is the<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> strategic divorce of the Western world from Russia and the new order in Eurasia. Even in <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">the case of <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">a peace <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">deal that is <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">relatively favorable to Ukraine, it\u2019<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">s<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> clear that relations between Europe and Russia are irreversibly damaged in the long term. The question is, can there still be a common European-Russian security architecture? Because many suggest that after this war, any common order in Eurasia will be replaced by two rival security blocs, with Ukraine <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\">consolidated<\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"> as an outpost of Europe.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial, sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">In the <\/span><span lang=\"en-US\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">more pe<\/span>ssimistic<\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\"> scenarios, <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">namely a <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">weak peace or <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">a <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">peace <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">deal <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">dictated to Ukraine, <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">foreign policy analyst <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">\u0218tefan Ciochinaru <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">believes <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">the <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">post-1945 and post-1991 <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">order would be perceived as <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">having been <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">eroded, aggression would be rewarded, and European security would <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">have to be continually prepared<\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\"> for the next shock, for the next war, <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">with no<\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\"> stable framework. <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">The analyst concludes that <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">2026 does not seem to be <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\">the<\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span lang=\"en-US\"> year of peace, but a year of fragile possibilities.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For almost four years, the military conflict in Ukraine has caused immense suffering and significant loss of human life, and sanctions and negotiations are yet to lead to the end to the confrontation. The war has changed individual destinies, but also the map of European security, affecting international relations. It is no longer just a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":108,"featured_media":933711,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43939],"tags":[],"coauthors":[113249],"class_list":["post-973771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-future-starts-today"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Could 2026 be the year of peace in Ukraine? - Radio Romania International<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rri.ro\/en\/features-and-reports\/the-future-starts-today\/could-2026-be-the-year-of-peace-in-ukraine-id973771.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Could 2026 be the year of peace in Ukraine? - Radio Romania International\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For almost four years, the military conflict in Ukraine has caused immense suffering and significant loss of human life, and sanctions and negotiations are yet to lead to the end to the confrontation. 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