Iran, a hot-spot on world's map

iran, a hot-spot on world's map It took Tehran three days to admit it had accidentally downed a Ukrainian plane with 176 passengers on board

It took Tehran three days to admit it had accidentally downed a Ukrainian plane with 176 passengers on board, of whom dozens of Iranians, and people got mad. They took to the streets of Tehran and other cities and shouted slogans against the authorities, also calling for the resignation of the dictator, a hint at the Iranian supreme leader, the ayatollah Ali Khamenei.


The  spokesperson for the Iranian Government, Ali Rabii, has stated that nobody tried to hide the truth, but the initial statements were based on information that showed no connection between the plane crash and a missile, as it was proven later. According to the Iranian authorities, it was just an error caused by the tensions between Iran and the US, the latter being expected to potentially retaliate.


Tension escalated after the killing on January 3rd, by the US, of the Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force, a division primarily responsible for the external operations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Tehran promised to revenge the death of its general and, shortly after, several missiles were shot in Baghdad, in the Green Zone,where the US embassy is also located.


The killing of Soleimani, seen as the second most important person in Tehran after the spiritual leader Ali Khamenei, was an action meant to put an end to a war, and not to start another, the US president explained, saying that Soleimani was preparing attacks on several US embassies.


Speaking on Radio Romania, Ovidiu Raetchi, a specialist in Middle East issues, made an analysis of the current situation;

"The massive evidence that the plane was actually downed forced the regime to assume responsibility for the attack. Now, the government has to manage a domestic crisis. Iranians are very sensitive to suffering, that's how Shiites are, this is how their religion is defined, in the face of unjust death.  Therefore, there will be genuine riots, beyond any other type of uprising that Iran's adversaries are interested in fostering. I believe there will be a year full of uprisings, first of all because the population has started to react to what the government did. The Iranian people is an educated people, they are very sensitive and the sense of justice is in their blood. They understand that the US, Israel, maybe the West, maybe Russia, or China, are interested in encouraging such protests, because the best way to get rid of Iran's snaking around the Middle East, around Saudi Arabia, around Israel, is to sever the head. The body of the snake is so tight in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, around Israel, Yemen and Iraq, that it will take years to remove it. So, the best way to do that is to encourage a change in the regime. We will see what China has to say about that and what Vladimir Putin's stand will be. I believe that, in the medium and long run, Russia will be winning. What China will do, is debatable. It is a major player, who does not really want the US to take a step forward in the Middle East, so the Chinese interests might relate to a non-revolutionary and rather quiet Iran."


In Tehran, pleading for national reconciliation, president Hassan Rouhani called for a major change in the way in which Iran is being governed, implicitly admitting that the tragedy caused by the  downing of the Ukrainian plane triggered a trust crisis. What will come next? Is the conflict going to escalate, or it will die slowly?; and which will be the stand of the US on this matter? 


Here is analyst Ovidiu Raetchi again:

"The Donald Trump approach, as we saw it, including in the relation with North Korea, tells us that from now on we will see the negotiator, seductive side of the US president. The problem is whether Iran will allow itself to hold talks with the US, given that domestic protests are growing. If the domestic fight continues, the ayatollahs' solution will be to destabilize the Middle East. One of the reasons why people are protesting, beyond everything that's happened to the plane, is the discontent for the way in which people live in Iran. The protests had already started before this crisis, they actually started in autumn, for economic reasons."


Potential negotiations might focus on a nuclear deal. Tehran would accept some very clear limits and control under certain terms, and would also renounce its aggressive policy with regard to the Shiite area, Ovidiu Raetchi believes. In exchange for that, sanctions might be eased.



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Publicat: 2020-01-17 13:27:00
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