Concern about Romania
Romania's strategic partners and economic analysts have voiced concerns about the country's trajectory after the second round of the presidential election
Ştefan Stoica, 06.12.2024, 14:00
Considered an essential partner in the Euro-Atlantic security framework, owing to its strategic position on NATO’s eastern flank, and a firm voice in a European Union, fully committed to supporting Ukraine, Romania not only lived up to expectations, but also offered no reason for concern so far. Things changed dramatically after the first round of the presidential election, won by an independent candidate, heavily promoted on TikTok, an opponent of NATO and the EU, an admirer of Putin’s Russia and some gloomy figures from the interwar period, anti-Semitic fascists, an advocate of resource nationalization and an autarchic economy. His victory in the first round was no accident: intelligence services later presented evidence pointing to serious Russian interference in the electoral process, stating that Russia is waging a hybrid war against Romania.
The United States have expressed concern about reports of Russian interference in the elections. The State Department has warned that Romania’s break with Western alliances in terms of foreign policy might have serious negative effects on security cooperation with the United States. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Romanian authorities had uncovered a large-scale and well-funded Russian effort to influence the presidential election. In addition, six former US ambassadors to Bucharest conveyed a message to Romanians, expressing concern that Romania was the target of a massive social media and cyber-attack, orchestrated by a state actor. In the letter, Alfred Moses, James Rosapepe, Michael Guest, Nicholas Taubman, Hans Klemm and Adrian Zuckerman expressed confidence that the Romanian people will see these attacks by authoritarian states as failed coups d’état and will not allow them to erode the close relationship the United States has always had with Romania. “Romania has no better friend than the United States, and the United States deeply values this relationship. Together, the people of Romania and the United States will achieve peace, democracy, and prosperity”, the letter reads.
A reaction also came from Berlin: “Reports from the Romanian authorities show that Russian disinformation is influencing the presidential election in Romania: Putin wants to divide us and undermine unity within the EU and NATO. But Europe remains strong. Together, we will protect our democracies from hybrid threats”, the German Foreign Ministry said.
The tense electoral context and uncertainty have also reduced analysts’ confidence in the Romanian economy. The CFA Romania Association’s Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator fell by 13.5% in November, to 31.4%, the lowest level recorded since July 2020 during the pandemic, amid extremely high political uncertainty and a sharp increase in investors’ risk aversion levels, the association’s president, Adrian Codirlaşu, has argued. A slight increase in inflation, around 5% in the coming year, higher interest rates on loans contracted by the state and a slight devaluation of the national currency, are equally anticipated, the CFA Romania president added. (VP)
