Growing trade deficit
Data provided by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) show that the trade deficit increased by 15% in the first nine months of the year.
Leyla Cheamil, 12.11.2024, 13:50
The trade balance deficit recorded in Romania in the first nine months of the current year increased by 15%, as compared to the same period of 2023, up to the value of approximately 23.5 billion Euros, according to data published on Monday by the National Institute of Statistics. In the mentioned interval, exports exceeded 69 billion Euros, decreasing by 1.4%. Imports totaled almost 93 billion Euros, increasing by 2.3%. According to the National Institute of Statistics, in the first nine months of this year, important shares in the structure of exports and imports are held by the following product categories: machines and transport equipment (almost 47% of exports and over 36% of imports) and other manufactured products. The value of intra-EU exchanges in goods exceeded 50 billion Euros in outgoings and was more than 67 billion Euros in incomings. The value of extra-EU exchanges was more than 19 billion Euros in exports and more than 25 billion Euros in imports.
Also on Monday, the National Bank of Romania (BNR) raised the inflation forecast for the end of this year to 4.9%, from 4% as estimated in August. It basically returned to the forecasts from the quarterly report on inflation published in May. The governor of the BNR, Mugur Isărescu, emphasized that the Central Bank makes its forecasts only based on certain data and that the way in which the fiscal-budgetary correction will be made in order to reduce the deficits will also influence the actual evolution of inflation. He said that he expected a coherent macroeconomic correction program with strong political support.
Track: “That’s what we’re waiting for. A credible macroeconomic correction program from the new government, to be supported politically, socially accepted and effective from a macroeconomic point of view, so that we can connect. We can conceive, I mean us, the Romanians, a gradual adjustment program, 0.7 per year, significantly lower than an economic growth, which we think to set at 2% per year, which can be combined with avoiding decreasing the standard of living, but not with 16% increases in gross or net or real incomes, that can no longer be done”.
The National Bank anticipates that inflation will go below 3.5% per year only in 2026. Mugur Isărescu pointed out that the evolution of prices is marked by a series of risks and uncertainties. These are related to both the fiscal policy and salary increases, and to external factors, such as the evolution of the European economies with which Romania conducts most of its commercial relations, the dynamics of the oil price, in the context of increasing geopolitical tensions, and also the way the conflicts will evolve in Ukraine and the Middle East. In the latest “World Economic Outlook” report, recently published, the International Monetary Fund has revised down to 1.9% the estimates regarding the growth of the Romanian economy this year, from 2.8% as forecast in April. (LS)
