IMF revises downwards Romania’s economic growth rate
Romania's economic growth will be slow in the upcoming period, according to IMF experts.
Bogdan Matei, 15.10.2025, 13:50
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly revised upwards its global economic forecast to 3.2% for this year. The Fund’s experts say that the tariffs imposed on imports by US President Donald Trump have been less damaging than expected. In contrast, in a report that examines all countries in the world, they have revised downwards the growth forecast for Romania’s economy for 2025, estimating an advance of only 1%, compared to 1.6%, as they forecast in April, and 3.3%, as was the advance indicated in October last year.
The international financial institution is also pessimistic about Romania’s progress in reducing the current account deficit. According to the latest estimates, it will only shrink to 8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, compared to a decline of 7.6% of GDP forecast in the spring. Next year, however, Romania’s current account deficit is expected to shrink to 6.6%, a significantly more optimistic forecast than the 7.4% forecast in April.
The IMF has also significantly revised its forecasts for consumer price developments in Romania, which are expected to register an annual average of 7.3% in 2025 and 6.7% in 2026. In comparison, in April, the Fund was betting on an average annual price increase of 4.6% in 2025 and only 3.1% in 2026 for Romania. As regards the unemployment rate in Romania, it is expected to increase by 0.5%, to 5.9%, and to decrease very slightly in 2026. However, the Fund has significantly increased its forecasts for inflation in Romania, now anticipating an average annual inflation rate of 7.3% this year and 6.7% in 2026. The forecasts were published on the occasion of the autumn meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which are taking place this week in Washington. In the case of Romania, the specialized press notes, the new forecasts are identical to those included in the report presented last month, at the end of a visit to Bucharest by a Fund mission.
The IMF is more optimistic than the World Bank on the Romanian economy. The most recent analyses for Europe and Central Asia published last week by the Bank anticipate that Romania will register an advance of only 0.4% this year and one of 1.3% next year. The World Bank also mentions that the government in Bucharest, faced with a fiscal deficit that exceeded 9% of GDP last year, introduced a fiscal consolidation package that combines spending cuts, such as freezing public salaries and pensions, with higher taxes. In Bucharest, the latest estimates of the National Strategy and Forecasting Commission indicate a GDP growth of 0.6% this year and 1.2% in 2026. (EE)
