Romania’s demographic shift – a shrinking and ageing population

Romania will be what we make of it through our actions”, says University Professor PhD Dumitru Sandu, a sociologist and expert in demographics and migration. Only the application of well-thought-out solutions can lead to a higher birth rate, an improved balance between the young and elderly generations or a slowdown in emigration.

Roxana Vasile, 07.10.2026, 14:00

As of January 1, 2026, Romania recorded 19,041,322 residents, according to provisional data published at the end of August by the National Statistics Institute. The resident population is defined as the total number of individuals, whether holding Romanian citizenship, foreign citizenship or stateless, who have had their regular residence in Romania for at least 12 months.

In a single year, the Institute recorded just 1,829 fewer residents, a negligible difference compared to the overall size of the population. However, the two underlying components that shaped this result are measured in the hundreds of thousands. Specifically, Romania lost approximately 104,000 inhabitants due to the negative natural balance between births and deaths. Yet, this deficit was almost entirely offset by a positive net migration of roughly 102,000 people. This shift is all the more striking for a country whose demographic trajectory over recent decades has been heavily defined by Romanians leaving the country. Today, the migration balance points the opposite: the number of people who moved or returned to live in Romania (immigrants) was higher compared to the number of people who left the country (emigrants).

Both departures and arrivals are heavily concentrated among active age groups, the largest volumes representing young and middle-aged adults. Men formed the majority among both emigrants (57.9%) and immigrants (58.6%). As a result, migration impacts not only the total population count, but also the size of the active workforce.

At the same time, out of the just over 19 million residents, the share of people aged 65 and over has climbed to 20.5%. Meanwhile, the share of children under 15 has slipped to 15.1%. This creates an increasingly strained generational ratio: there are now nearly 136 elderly individuals for every 100 children.

Last but not least, Romania continues to lose demographic ground: the number of newborns has dropped by more than 4% year-on-year, marking a staggering 33% decline compared to a decade ago.

Speaking to Radio Romania, University Professor PhD Dumitru Sandu, a sociologist and expert in demographics and migration, argues that the reality on the ground is not as alarming as it might first appear:

“Things are changing in more ways than one. Romania is changing, and it is not the only country facing these challenges, so I would start with a sort of reassurance, because things are not that serious. For instance, ageing is a problem, undoubtedly, but we aren’t the fastest-ageing country in Europe. The birth rate is falling, but no more than in Japan, for instance, which is far, far away… All the things mentioned – ageing, birth rate, migration – are real problems, but what are we going to do? In the short term, we should try to come up with solutions, ways to offset these trends”.

In Professor Dumitru Sandu’s view, what is required, among other things, is better functioning of state institutions:

“We need a common denominator for these problems—for ageing, for the falling birth rate, and for leaving the country, for emigration. One of the common denominators for these problems is called ‘institutions.’ Institutions must be built in such a way that they function better. Many years ago, I led a survey in the Madrid region focused precisely on the topic of ‘how do we determine Romanians in Spain to return home.’ And one of the answers that was valid then, and is valid now—both for migration and for the birth rate, since ageing is a secondary phenomenon—is to make institutions in Romania function in such a way that they are comparable to those in Great Britain, Germany, France, Spain, and so on. I have surveys and data behind me that compare countries with one another, and people were asked in a Eurobarometer survey ‘under what conditions would you stay in the country?’, because it’s not enough just to come back to the country, you also have to stay. And in order to stay in the country, you need less corruption. I’m not saying this; the people are saying it, right? That means institutions that function better, more efficiently, more transparently.”

Furthermore, says the demography and migration expert, another solution is represented by occupations—incomes, but also professional opportunities—which must keep pace with the times we are living through:

“Occupation, I said, is another common denominator, a pillar of rising birth rates, a pillar of returns to the country. Incomes—everyone talks about incomes. Take the case of doctors! We raised doctors’ salaries a few years ago, and doctors are still leaving the country. Why? Simply because the opportunities for professional development abroad are different.”

Unfortunately, instead of searching for and applying solutions that yield clear results, Romania’s public sphere is filled with a great deal of sterile wailing—why the population is shrinking, what is happening to villages left empty, why the birth rate is low and migration is high, and so on. If we complain endlessly, we solve nothing—says university professor and PhD Dumitru Sandu:

“Romania will be what we make of it through our actions. The idea that there is fatalism is false. There is no fatalism whatsoever. Quite simply, Romania can look much worse or much better. And again, I would give an example: European funds. We use them for everything, and it’s good that we use them, but not for bringing people back to the country. At this moment, we have approximately 4.5 to 5 million Romanian citizens abroad. I want to tell you that Romanian citizens abroad represent, practically speaking, one of the country’s assets. These are people who possess critical thinking, who can make comparisons, and so forth. The number of parliamentarians representing the diaspora in the Romanian Parliament is roughly equal to that for Călărași, Ilfov, Ialomița… small counties. That cannot stand!”

Yet, merely complaining, doing nothing, and waiting—as the saying goes—for the sky to fall, could see Romania with 3.4 million fewer inhabitants by 2080, with a quarter of the population aged over 65.