Security Challenges in the Balkans

George Scutaru, General Director of the independent think tank “The New Strategy Center”, on security challenges in the Balkans, the implications of the war in Ukraine, and how they are felt most acutely in the Black Sea region

Corina Cristea, 09.01.2026, 12:00

Launched almost four years ago, Moscow’s so-called “special operation” in Ukraine has had a profound geopolitical impact, affecting the regional and global balance of power. The conflict has led to a sharp deterioration in relations between Russia and the West. It has weakened Moscow’s strategic position in Europe. It has strengthened Western unity. It has redefined international security priorities. We are talking about one of the most significant ruptures in the international order since the Cold War. What is happening in Ukraine also has a significant impact on security in the Balkans, even though the region is not directly involved militarily.

George Scutaru, General Director of the independent think tank “The New Strategy Center”, discussed security challenges in the Balkans, the implications of the war in Ukraine, and how they are felt most acutely in the Black Sea region.

“We are discussing three levels: first, we have the hybrid level, because the war in Ukraine does not only bring kinetic, military action, it also brings numerous hybrid actions to Europe, in the Black Sea region and the Balkans—and here we are talking about the policy of promoting disinformation narratives in order to maintain a positive image of Russia, even though Russia is an aggressor state, and also to weaken support for Ukraine in some states. I am referring here to states such as Croatia and Bulgaria, which are making an important contribution in terms of supplying certain types of ammunition to Ukraine. Secondly, Russia has a historical influence in the Balkans, using the religious factor, Orthodoxy, and at the same time the Slavic factor. Russia still has a strong influence in Bulgaria and Serbia and is trying to maintain its influence in Bosnia and Herzegovina through the Dodik regime in Republika Srpska, so that it can open, metaphorically speaking, a second front, i.e. create additional problems for the West, so that it has to deal not only with the issue of support for Ukraine, but also with other security issues in the region.”

The third element concerns how countries in the region must deal with collateral effects, namely energy issues, explained the director general of “The New Strategy Center”. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the vulnerability of Balkan countries to their dependence on Russian energy resources. Supply crises and rising prices have amplified social tensions and highlighted the need to diversify energy sources and routes. In this context, the Black Sea and the South-East European energy corridors are becoming increasingly important strategically. Once again, George Scutaru:

“Some EU countries, like Bulgaria, have managed to solve their dependence on Russian gas and find some substitutes for gas imports, but Serbia is still dependent on energy imports from Russia. Economic issues are having an impact on the region, and we are also seeing the growing influence of other players, such as China, which has a much softer approach to expanding its political and economic influence, primarily through various investments it promotes, including in the Balkan region.”

The assessment is that the unprovoked war in Ukraine is not just a regional crisis, but a turning point in the evolution of the post-Cold War world order. How can Romania capitalize on its strategic position in the region, not only as a member of NATO and the EU, but also as a promoter of stability? The exploitation of gas in the Black Sea, the development of energy transport infrastructure, and interconnection with neighbouring states can reduce regional dependence on Russia and strengthen energy security in the Balkans, while strategically and militarily, Romania can contribute to security in the Balkans by strengthening NATO’s eastern flank and actively participating in regional cooperation initiatives.

George Scutaru: “We are a Balkan country without any resentment baggage, as there is no nation that takes a negative stance towards Romania. This is a great advantage for us. Secondly, on the eastern flank, we are the most important country militarily, together with Turkey—of course, we cannot compare ourselves to Turkey, which is the second military force in the Alliance—but nevertheless, through the capabilities we accumulate year after year, Romania’s military relevance is growing. What is important for us is to avoid a negative scenario in terms of developments on the Ukrainian front. For Romania, the worst-case scenario would be a direct border with the Russian Federation. This would mean that the Ukrainian front would be seriously affected and Russia would have the capacity to pass Odessa and reach the mouth of the Danube.

Such a scenario, George Scutaru explained, would mean that Romania would have a direct border with Russia and, moreover, the Russian Federation could occupy the Republic of Moldova, because Moldova has no army and lacks the strategic depth to absorb the shock of an invasion. (MI)