Demographic alert in Romania

Romania's population will continue to decline by 2080, with the most pessimistic scenario indicating a drop of as much as 25%, according to estimates by the National Institute of Statistics.

Ştefan Stoica, 02.12.2025, 13:50

Romania’s population may drop to 14,367,000 by 2080 from just over 19 million in 2025 in the most pessimistic scenario provided by the National Institute of Statistics in a study entitled  “A projection of the active population of Romania by 2080”. In absolute figures, this would mean that there would be almost 4.7 million fewer Romanians over the age of 55, representing a population decrease of 25%. The Institute explains that this is one of the three versions of the resident population projection made by the Institute, referred to as the constant variant or the reference point variant, and which is based on the 2024 levels of fertility rate, life expectancy and net migration.

The average or most plausible variant indicates that in the event of a slight increase in fertility rates and an improvement in life expectancy, the population decrease would amount to 3.4 million people, accounting for a drop of almost 18% compared with 2025. This variant is considered the most likely and is based on recent trends relating to the main demographic indicators.

According to the most optimistic variant, the population would only decrease by 1.923 million people, accounting for about 10% of the current population. It is based on improved fertility and life expectancy rates and indicates the maximum level that could be reached under positive demographic conditions.

The coordinator of the study, the vice president of the National Institute of Statistics, Silviu Vîrva, says that, regardless of the scenario analysed, Romania’s population will continue to decline by 2080, with the extent of the decline varying between 10% and 25% of the current population. The scenarios have taken into account the most recent demographic data available, such as the resident population on January 1, 2025, according to county, age and gender; total fertility rates and the rate of live births according to the age of the mothers; life expectancy at birth in 2024, according to gender and county internal migration, according to age and gender; the level of international migration in 2024, and the difference between immigrants and emigrants, according to age, gender and county.

The study provides a long-term perspective on the country’s demographics, based on rigorous methodology and an in-depth analysis of the data collected and processed by the National Institute of Statistics. It can be used to foresee and manage more efficiently the social changes that influence demographics, such as population aging, emigration and the evolution of natural growth, the coordinator of the study, Silviu Vîrva emphasised. The study is also useful because it presents demographic projections essential in the drafting of public policies and economic and social strategies. Last but not least, it points to possible changes in the structure of the population, so that resources could be adapted to take into account the future needs of society.