EBRD Forecast
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has reduced the growth forecast for Romania's economy for this year to 1.2%.
Leyla Cheamil, 27.02.2026, 13:50
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised downwards to 1.2% the growth forecast of the Romanian economy for 2026, compared to 1.6% as estimated in September, according to the data of the “Regional Economic Prospects” report, published on Thursday by the international financial institution. According to the document, this year’s growth and the 2.2% advance next year are supported by a projected peak in the absorption of European funds from the RRF (Recovery and Resilience Facility) and the improvement of the trade balance. The financial institution also considers that the weak external demand is an important source of downside risk.
The EBRD’s preliminary estimate for 2025 indicates a 0.9% advance in Romania’s Gross Domestic Product, which is a similar level to the one forecast in September. “Economic growth remained subdued in 2025 (…). An intensification of investments financed by European funds and the recovery of goods exports partially compensated for the weakness of private consumption, amid a 5% decrease in real wages in the second half of the year”, the document shows. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development believes that business confidence remains grim, amid the political turbulence in the first half of the year and the fiscal consolidation measures implemented in the second half of 2025.
The fiscal deficit is also estimated to have narrowed from 9.3% of GDP to around 8% of GDP last year. This is expected to fall to 6.2% of GDP in 2026. The increase in VAT and energy prices led to an increase in the annual inflation rate to a peak of 9.7% at the end of the year, the highest in the European Union. The EBRD also appreciates that the National Bank of Romania has maintained the restrictive interest rate to combat persistent inflationary pressures. The latest forecasts of the Central Bank in Bucharest, included in the quarterly report published last week, show that inflation will reach the national bank’s target range only in the second quarter of 2027.
Inflation could register a new increase in the second quarter of this year, if the natural gas price cap is abandoned. Otherwise, the current slight downward trend could continue, says the national bank Governor Mugur Isărescu. He added that, from the second part of the summer, a more substantial reduction in the consumer price index would be recorded. Mugur Isărescu also stressed that public investments, especially from European funds, should be the basis of economic growth, not other fiscal facilities, possibly spread over 10-20 years, and he specified that political stability is also needed. (LS)
