From trade deficit to economic forecasts
Romania's trade deficit decreased by 7% in the first four months of the year, but experts warn that the figures are not an accurate reflection of the state of the national economy
Sorin Iordan, 10.06.2026, 13:50
Romania’s trade deficit in the first 4 months of the year went down 7% compared to the corresponding period in 2025. According to National Statistics Institute data, this indicator stood at EUR 10.8 billion, down EUR 818.6 million.
During the period under review, exports rose by 1.9% to almost EUR 32 billion, while imports decreased by 0.5%, to EUR 42.8 billion. The vehicle and transport equipment sector continued to dominate foreign trade, accounting for almost half of Romania’s exports and over one-third of imports.
At the same time, almost 75% of Romania’s trade was carried out with European Union member states.
The head of the Romanian Association of Exporters and Importers Mihai Ionescu says the new data is a good signal, but not enough to stimulate economic growth. He believes the 1.9% export growth rate cannot kickstart the economy, and a sharp decrease in imports is not necessarily good news, since a large part of them involve raw materials, components and equipment needed by the Romanian industry. Mihai Ionescu also says that judging by the figures for May 2026, industry, which likely accounts for the largest share in Romania’s exports, does not show signs of recovery.
In turn, financial analysts argue that reducing the trade deficit by massively reducing imports is no reason for joy. According to them, the correction is not the result of a strong increase in competitiveness, but rather of a reduction in domestic consumption, and this is another signal that Romania’s economy is hobbling.
Confirmation came from the National Strategy and Forecast Commission, which expects a mere 0.1% economic growth rate in 2026, down 0.9% from the previous estimate.
Thus, the GDP for the current year is expected to reach about EUR 411 billion, as against roughly EUR 366 billion in 2025. For 2027, the Commission estimates a GDP of EUR 420 billion, i.e. a 2.2% growth rate, supported by lower inflation and more favourable financing conditions. Economic growth is expected to continue at 2.4% in 2028, but will likely slow down to 2.1% in 2029.
As for the main macroeconomic indicators, the Commission revised its 2026 average annual inflation estimates upwards to 7.9%, a 1.4% increase compared to the autumn forecasts. For 2027, an average annual inflation of 3.8% is estimated, dropping to 3% in 2028, and 2.8% in 2029.
The National Strategy and Forecast Commission warns, however, that its forecast is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, with the lingering conflict in the Middle East, deviation from budget consolidation reforms and tighter international trade policies threatening to affect macroeconomic balances. (AMP)
