Inflation rate to remain high

Within a month, the inflation rate has gone up significantly, by over 2%, now nearing 10%, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics.

Mihai Pelin, 12.09.2025, 14:00

The annual inflation rate went up in August to 9.58%, according to the National Institute of Statistics. The rise is by more than 2% compared with July, and the National Bank, as well as many economists, are expecting the rate to pass 10% this month. According to statistical data, electricity has seen the biggest cost rise in the last 12 months, by almost 66% on average, followed by fresh fruit, by almost 42%, and hygiene and cosmetics services and rail transport, the cost of which has gone up by 18 to 20%.

Significant cost rises in August compared with July were also reported in the case of air transport services, by more than 11%, as well as books and newspapers and industrial services, which went up by 5-6%. The price of alcoholic beverages, bakery and coffee specialties, city transport, and prices in restaurants and bars went up by around 4%. Potatoes and other vegetables were cheaper in August compared with July by 5-6%. Financial analyst and head of CFA Romania Adrian Codirlaşu says the inflation rate will remain high in the long term, the result of economic policy mistakes in previous years:

“August saw a rise of more than 2%. This was the effect of the rise in VAT and excise duties on diesel oil and petrol. In the future we will see more rises, not just in the price of fuel, but also that of electricity and methane gas. The inflation will remain at around 10% for the rest of the year and most likely for a good part of next year, all the more so as there is already talk of an additional rise in VAT, either for products now benefitting from lower VAT levels, or even the general VAT rate. So, this isn’t over.”

Adrian Codirlaşu says the inflation rate may even go near 12%, and the dynamics of consumer prices may remain high for a number of years, despite the National Bank estimating a mere 3% inflation rate for the end of next year.

Meanwhile, the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis has revised downwards its estimates about Romania’s economic growth rate this year, from 1.4% last spring to a mere 0.6%. The reasons for this are the increase in VAT and excise duties under the government’s first package to cut the budget deficit, the liberalization of electricity prices and lower consumption rates. The Commission estimates a 1.2% economic growth rate for next year, and a level of 2.5% for 2027 and 2028.