Tensions within the Ruling Coalition in Romania

Nobody believes anymore in the political marriage between the Social Democratic Party and the National Liberal Party, following the latest statements made by their leaders.

Ştefan Stoica, 21.02.2014, 13:10

Officially, the liberal and social democratic leaders of the ruling alliance in Romania are waiting until Monday to see whether there is any chance for the two parties to reconcile, after their public argument over the restructuring of the government. At least this is the deadline set by Liberal party leader Crin Antonescu for Prime Minister Victor Ponta to make the changes requested by the Liberal Party. The most important change, which actually triggered the dispute, is the proposal of Klaus Johannis as Minister of the Interior and deputy Prime Minister.

The statements made on Thursday by the leaders of the two parties deepened the gap within the Social Liberal Union and confirmed the scenario of an imminent separation. Victor Ponta has stated that the intransigent attitude of the Liberal Party and their refusal to analyze the solutions presented by the Social Democratic Party are evidence that Crin Antonescu has chosen to run for president this autumn not as a representative of the Social Liberal Union, but as a representative of the opposition.

Victor Ponta: “I am convinced that Mr. Antonescu has actually made the decision to run on his own as an opposition candidate, because so far the candidates that have run on the part of the opposition have won.”

Crin Antonescu was quick to reply, saying that such a statement is clear evidence of the Prime Minister’s intention to get rid of with the Liberal Party and to give up on the Social Liberal majority for the benefit of a new executive, formed around the recently established Social Democratic Union, which includes the Social Democratic Party and two smaller parties, namely the Conservative Party and the National Union for the Progress of Romania. However, the President of the Liberal Party has warned, this would require a fresh legitimacy, which only Parliament can provide.

Crin Antonescu: “ Mr. Ponta holds the power and the position of Prime Minister together with us, as decided and validated by Romania’s citizens and Parliament. Therefore, in order to stay in power, without the National Liberal Party, he will have to find a new source of this power, something to render it legitimate again.”

The leader of the National Liberal Party has admitted that chances of Monday bringing a miraculous solution to this political crisis are slim. The media have already started to do the math regarding the potential majority of the Social Democratic Union. Arithmetically, this majority could be ensured in the Senate, while in the Chamber of Deputies the Social Democratic Union would need the support of the Democratic Union of Ethnic Hungarians and of the other minorities.

Even if there are chances for Victor Ponta to raise enough votes in Parliament to validate a new government, the big social-liberal projects regarding the revision of the Constitution and Romania’s administrative-territorial reorganization are compromised, at least in the short-run, because two thirds of Parliament are supposed to vote in favor for them to be promoted. Theoretically, a Social Democratic Government can be formed, but in practice its possibilities and subsequently its ambitions would be limited.