The National Bank maintains monetary interest rate policy
The National Bank of Romanian Board of Directors decided to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 6.50% per year.
Ştefan Stoica, 18.02.2026, 13:50
The annual inflation rate will continue its slow decline in the first quarter of 2026, and in the following quarter it will increase, amid influences stemming from base effects, as well as from the evolution of some commodity prices and the elimination of the ceiling for the commercial mark-up on basic foodstuffs. Subsequently, the annual inflation rate will experience a steep downward correction in the third quarter of 2026, before gradually decreasing, falling from the middle of the first semester of next year within the target range. These estimates appear in the Report on Inflation, February 2026 edition, analyzed and approved on Tuesday by the Board of Directors of the National Bank of Romania (BNR). The Central Bank signals that uncertainties remain, however, associated with the measures that will probably be adopted in order to continue budgetary consolidation beyond the current year, in accordance with the Medium-Term Budgetary-Structural Plan agreed with the European Commission and the excessive deficit procedure. Significant uncertainties and risks to the outlook for economic activity, implicitly the medium-term evolution of inflation, come from the external environment, given, on the one hand, geopolitical conflicts and global trade tensions, and, on the other hand, plans to increase spending on defense and infrastructure investments in EU countries.
According to the BNR, in this context, the absorption and maximum use of European funds, especially those related to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), are essential for partially offsetting the contractionary effects of budgetary consolidation and the geopolitical and trade conflicts, as well as for carrying out the necessary structural reforms, including the energy transition. The monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank and the Fed – the US central banking system – as well as the attitude of central banks in the region are also relevant, the BNR emphasizes. It decided to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 6.50% per year. At the same time, it decided to maintain the interest rate for the lending facility at 7.50% per year and the interest rate for the deposit facility at 5.50% per year.
The Board of Directors of the National Bank of Romania also decided to maintain the current levels of the rates of the minimum mandatory reserves for the liabilities in local currency (lei) and foreign currency of credit institutions. The financial analyst Dragoş Cabat believes that, given the very high inflation at the moment, the monetary policy interest rate could not be lowered, because economic growth is anemic. Therefore, a stability of the monetary policy interest rate was, in his opinion, the smartest decision. Dragoş Cabat sees a reduction in the key interest rate this year as unlikely. He emphasizes that only if inflation were to reach 5-6% in October-November, the Central Bank could subsequently operate one or two cuts in the monetary policy interest rate. (LS)
