Trade deficit on the wane
Data shows Romania has made significant progress, and the fiscal trajectory is moving in the right direction
Corina Cristea, 12.05.2026, 14:00
Romania must maintain fiscal discipline and the pace of reforms to avoid a country rating downgrade. This is the key takeaway from recent discussions between interim Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare, Standard & Poor’s and other rating agencies. In a Facebook post, Nazare explained that financial partners are closely watching for consistency in economic policy and the authorities’ ability to deliver on reforms promised under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) and the medium-term fiscal plan. “Romanian authorities have maintained a very open and transparent dialogue with rating agencies to ensure they have all the necessary data. The narrowing of the budget deficit, the trade balance, and the current account deficit all send a positive signal”, Alexandru Nazare said. According to the Minister, the government led by Ilie Bolojan achieved a notable performance in the first quarter: a deficit of just 1% of GDP, less than half of what it was during the same period last year.
“Right now, we are helped by the fact that the first-quarter budget deficit stands at a very healthy 1.04% of GDP. It is well below last year’s level, which is a major advantage. So, the numbers back up our position and our relationship with the agencies, both the first-quarter deficit and the shrinking trade and current account deficits in the first two months of the year. For example, regarding the trade balance, while we had a €5.5-billion deficit last year, this year it’s down to €4.6 billion, a 17% drop, or nearly €950 million, in just two months. As for the current account, last year’s €3.7-billion deficit has fallen to €3.2 billion this year, a 12% decrease of nearly €500 million. This is a sharp contrast to the 2025 figures; in January and February of last year, the trade deficit was surging by 41% and the current account deficit by 26%”, Minister Nazare explained.
According to the Romanian official, these figures reinforce the message that Romania has made significant strides and that its fiscal trajectory is on the right track. However, he warned that July, August and October will be critical months, as Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s publish their periodic evaluations, which could have serious consequences for the country’s borrowing costs. “These are scheduled reviews, but if the agencies notice a turn for the worse or have data to support such a concern, they can convene committee or board meetings triggered by specific events. Our goal during this period, even as an interim government, is to prevent the need for any such emergency meetings”, the interim Finance Minister added. (VP)
