World Bank forecast for Romania
Romania’s economy will stagnate this year, the World Bank forecasts.
Ştefan Stoica, 12.06.2026, 14:00
The global economy is expected to record lower growth this year, of 2.5%, compared with the 2.6% advance projected in January, due to the war in the Middle East. The estimate appears in the World Bank’s latest report. According to the international financial institution, if confirmed, it would be the weakest economic growth since the pandemic began at the end of 2019. And things could look even worse, the World Bank warns: global expansion could slow to just 1.3% if disruptions in energy supply prove much more severe and bring substantial stress to financial markets.
Regarding Romania, the World Bank presents a forecast consistent with or very close to the projections of other domestic and international institutions. According to the World Bank, the Romanian economy is expected to register zero growth this year, compared with the 1.3% advance projected in January. Romania’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.7% next year, after the World Bank had forecast 1.9% in January. In 2028, the Romanian economy will grow by 2%.
Since January, the most significant downward revisions have been in Romania, Turkey, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine, driven mainly by the shock in commodity prices, along with country specific developments, the World Bank report notes.
Between 2026 and 2028, fiscal policy is expected to largely support growth in most economies. Fiscal deficits are expected to remain high amid persistent spending pressures, including defense expenditures. Limited fiscal space, especially in Montenegro, Romania, and Ukraine, will likely restrict authorities’ ability to absorb this shock, the World Bank warns.
Recently, the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis estimated economic growth of only 0.1% for 2026, revising its previous projection downward by 0.9%. The medium term outlook was developed in a difficult geopolitical context, with uncertainties amplified by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a major energy shock on the global market. The inflationary effect caused by rising fuel prices has overlapped with domestic efforts to correct macroeconomic imbalances through continued fiscal consolidation measures, generating a deterioration in the outlook for the current year, the Commission says.
In the medium term, it maintains unchanged its estimates for economic growth over the 2027–2029 period, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.2%, supported mainly by continued investment development. After the decline in 2026, private consumption will grow at an average annual pace above that of GDP, as the effects of fiscal consolidation gradually diminish. (EE)
