Rising Trade, Falling Interest Rates
Trade is growing in Romania, and trading of agricultural products is better than in 2022.
Daniela Budu, 25.04.2023, 14:00
In Romania, trading businesses registered a 9% increase in the first two months of this year as compared to the same period in 2022, show the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics. Thus, in February compared to January, trading of agricultural products had an increase of almost 27%, while trading of foodstuffs by only 4.6%. These indicators are important, in the opinion of economic analyst Constantin Rudniţchi, because they show the dynamics of the economy and consumption.
Constantin Rudniţchi: “We can see that, despite these discussions and complaints about the Ukrainian cereals, this year, at least the agricultural products trading area is on first place in terms of growth, which points to the dynamism of this field. We also see lower figures in relation to food products, which is certainly the result of inflation. Also this lower growth figure shows us that consumption is also slowing down. We could expect this situation, because inflation almost forces consumers to reduce their consumption or buy cheaper products.
In addition, analyst Constantin Rudniţchi says, in the next period there could be a slowdown in trading activities, given that inflation remains high and economic growth forecasts are decreasing compared to last year. According to the National Institute of Statistics, the annual inflation rate dropped to a little over 14.5% in March, from 15.5% in February, as foodstuffs prices rose by over 21%, and the prices of non-foods and services by 11%. However, the National Bank of Romania expects the annual inflation rate to decrease faster than previously anticipated, especially starting from the third quarter of this year, against the background of the extension of energy price capping and compensation schemes.
On the other hand, Romanias central bank announces that the ROBOR indices continue their downward trend, and the rates should decrease slightly as of the middle of the year. The three-month ROBOR, according to which the basket of consumer loans in lei with variable interest is calculated, fell to the lowest value since July last year. In early 2023, the index was over 7.5%. According to the national bank data, the six-month ROBOR, used to calculate interest on mortgage loans in lei with a variable interest rate, also fell below 7% per year. (LS)
