Good news from Moody’s
Credit rating agencies maintain their ratings for the Romanian economy, but remain cautious about the outlook.
Bogdan Matei, 10.08.2026, 14:00
As anticipated by most economic analysts in Bucharest, credit rating agency Moody’s has maintained Romania’s rating at Baa3, with a negative outlook. According to the agency, the decision to maintain the negative outlook reflects significant implementation risks associated with the ambitious fiscal consolidation programme, despite the initial progress made in reducing the deficit.
Political conditions have become more challenging following the adoption in May of a motion of no confidence against former prime minister and Liberal Party leader Ilie Bolojan, while political fragmentation delayed the formation of a new government. The agency expects a new administration to take office after the summer recess.
The coming months will be important in assessing Romania’s ability to maintain political support for a prolonged fiscal adjustment and to implement structural measures that will help stabilise the country’s debt.
The affirmation of Romania’s ratings takes into account the country’s integration into the European Union and its institutional framework, which underpin policy credibility and provide access to funding from Brussels. It also reflects Romania’s solid growth potential and relatively high levels of wealth compared with countries in the same rating category.
Vulnerabilities relate, in addition to the domestic political situation, to the proximity of the war in neighboring Ukraine and to the country’s large structural current-account deficits.
A similar assessment was issued by Fitch on 31 July, when the agency announced that it was maintaining Romania’s sovereign rating at BBB minus, with a negative outlook.
According to Fitch’s experts, Romania’s rating is supported by its membership of the European Union and is associated with capital inflows that underpin income convergence and access to external financing. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and the quality of governance are higher than those of other BBB-rated countries.
These strengths are offset by large and persistent fiscal and current-account deficits, a rising ratio of government debt and net external debt to GDP, high inflation, and an increasingly fragmented and polarised domestic political environment.
Political uncertainty has increased following the collapse of the four-party government, comprising the PSD, PNL, USR and UDMR, all of which have declared themselves pro-Western, while the path towards a resolution remains unclear.
At the beginning of October, the assessment by the other major rating agency, Standard & Poor’s, is also expected. For the time being, commentators note, all three major agencies have a negative outlook attached to Romania’s sovereign rating, leaving the country just one notch away from a junk, or non-investment-grade, rating. (EE)
