Could 2026 be the year of peace in Ukraine?
For almost four years, the military conflict in Ukraine has caused immense suffering and significant loss of human life, and sanctions and negotiations are yet to lead to the end to the confrontation.
Corina Cristea, 23.01.2026, 14:00
For almost four years, the military conflict in Ukraine has caused immense suffering and significant loss of human life, and sanctions and negotiations are yet to lead to the end to the confrontation. The war has changed individual destinies, but also the map of European security, affecting international relations. It is no longer just a military confrontation, but it also affects supply chains and is a source of energy insecurity, political fatigue and pressure on the international order.
Could 2026 be the year of peace in Ukraine? For now, the conflict seems to have entered a phase of attrition, in which the human, economic and political costs are huge. The data show that both sides are in an advanced state of exhaustion, but not in the same way and not with the same strategic consequences, says university professor and foreign policy analyst Ștefan Ciochinaru:
“Ukraine is in a state of critical exhaustion, but not on the verge of collapsing. Ukraine continues to adapt, it is resisting, but the human cost is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. As for Russia, it experiencing slow exhaustion, but it still feels it can win this war of attrition. Thus, despite the sanctions and losses, the Kremlin still views the war as being sustainable in the medium term, and believes that it can defeat Ukraine in a conflict of attrition. The exhaustion is there, but it is not perceived as an immediate strategic threat. Please note that I am talking about perceptions, and I am not speaking about Russia, but about the Kremlin. In fact, it’s about Putin, Putin’s perception and his conviction that he can win a war of attrition. Under these conditions, the war will most likely not end in 2026, but will turn into a less intense, prolonged phase, which is precisely the sign of a conflict that has entered the phase of structural exhaustion. Although both sides are exhausted, neither is so exhausted as to accept major concessions. It is likely that in 2026 we will not witness a rupture, but rather a dangerous convergence, I would say, of military, financial and political pressures. Because Ukraine cannot give in without existential guarantees, Russia does not want to negotiate without significant territorial gains, and the West is not yet willing to push for a solution. My conclusion is that the war is in an advanced stage of exhaustion, but not in a terminal phase.”
If we look carefully at what is happening, we see that there are many signs that 2026 is rather a milestone in a prolonged global conflict, says university professor Ştefan Ciochinaru. However, wow would a possible peace deal in 2026 change Europe’s security architecture and international relations in general? Broadly speaking, there are three scenarios: peace with strong guarantees for Ukraine; a ceasefire, a frozen conflict; or an imposed agreement, dictated to Ukraine, or, in other words, favorable to Russia, explains Ştefan Ciochinaru
“How the security architecture changes depends significantly on which of these three scenarios comes to happen. It’s clear that Europe can no longer remain in ambiguity. It either integrates Ukraine into its structures, the European Union, possibly NATO or something very close, or it remains with a gray area, extremely unstable on its border. If peace were to bring solid guarantees for Ukraine, then we would probably see a much more influential Eastern bloc within the EU and we would see mechanisms in which a group of European states will take on commitments relating to defence, military assistance and long-term reconstruction. In any case, NATO remains the central pillar of European security. In the event of a peace deal with serious guarantees for Kyiv, NATO itself will have to decide whether Ukraine formally joins the alliance or whether it receives bilateral guarantees, plus prepositioning of capabilities. Another aspect to look at is the strategic divorce of the Western world from Russia and the new order in Eurasia. Even in the case of a peace deal that is relatively favorable to Ukraine, it’s clear that relations between Europe and Russia are irreversibly damaged in the long term. The question is, can there still be a common European-Russian security architecture? Because many suggest that after this war, any common order in Eurasia will be replaced by two rival security blocs, with Ukraine consolidated as an outpost of Europe.”
In the more pessimistic scenarios, namely a weak peace or a peace deal dictated to Ukraine, foreign policy analyst Ștefan Ciochinaru believes the post-1945 and post-1991 order would be perceived as having been eroded, aggression would be rewarded, and European security would have to be continually prepared for the next shock, for the next war, with no stable framework. The analyst concludes that 2026 does not seem to be the year of peace, but a year of fragile possibilities.
