The Republic of Moldova Closer to the EU

The citizens of the Republic of Moldova voted, on October 20, in favor of amending the country's Constitution to support its accession to the EU

Corina Cristea, 01.11.2024, 13:26

The citizens of the Republic of Moldova voted, on October 20, in favor of amending the country’s Constitution to support its accession to the EU, and sent the incumbent, pro-Western president Maia Sandu, and Alexandr Stoianoglo to the second round of the presidential elections. The latter is supported by the pro-Russian Socialist Party. In their only electoral debate before the November 3 elections, Maia Sandu accused her opponent of being the “Trojan horse” through which others want to rule the country, and called him “Moscow’s man” on several occasions. The current president, who dismissed Stoianoglo from the position of general prosecutor, accused him of closing major corruption cases against Igor Dodon, Viaceslav Platon and Ilan Şor, but also for not supporting the referendum for joining the Union. Stoianoglo, who did not participate in the referendum, declares himself, however, a firm supporter of European integration, and states that he wants to strengthen friendly relations with Romania and Ukraine, but also good relations with Russia and China, which he called “partners of development, alongside the EU”. Throughout the campaign, Chisinau repeatedly denounced Russia’s interference in the electoral process, something denied by Moscow. There is “clear evidence” that criminal groups supported by “foreign forces hostile to our national interests” tried to buy 300 thousand votes, says Maia Sandu. At a turnout of 1.5 million, that would mean 20% of the votes being bought. The results show that, in the first round, Maia Sandu obtained almost 43% of the votes, and Alexander Stoianoglo about 26%. On the same day, at the referendum, over 750 thousand citizens voted in favor of amending the Constitution, the advance of the pro-Western camp being only about 12 thousand votes, with the balance tilting thanks to the decisive vote from the diaspora. The close result from the referendum can create problems for the president Maia Sandu in the second round of the presidential elections, according to the political analyst from the Republic of Moldova, Anatol Ţaranu. He believes that Maia Sandu will no longer benefit from the political advantage that an overwhelming vote in favor of European integration would have brought:

“The fact that the vote was so close creates problems, very serious problems regarding the opening of Moldovan society to a European option. It also creates very serious problems for those who initiated this referendum, because it was believed that, in the second round, Maia Sandu will go with a well-defined political gain, a success in the referendum. This success is not so obvious, which creates premises for Maia Sandu’s opponents to criticize her.”

University professor Ion Bogdan Lefter is not of the same opinion. According to him, “things are settling down now, after in the first round the incumbent president obtained a considerable advance, psychologically speaking. This leads to, as sociologists, and electoral analysts sometimes say, a kind of electoral premium”. Here is Ion Bogdan Lefter:

“Also, this success, even being so close, even with so few votes over 50% in the referendum that Ms. Maia Sandu promoted, and which indicates, regardless of the score, the decision of the Republic of Moldova to integrate into the EU, will generate the same type of attitude and reaction at the polls. So, if we take into account not only the electoral arithmetic, the strictly numerical results from the first round, if we introduce such electoral psychology arguments into the discussion, then I think that the second round still has a predictable result. It would be a huge surprise for Ms. Sandu to lose, and I don’t think we will witness such a surprise.”

What is the geopolitical stake of the elections and voting in the Republic of Moldova? Eliminating Russia’s malignant influence, says political-military analyst Radu Tudor:

“The Republic of Moldova, unfortunately, has Russian occupation troops on its territory, in the Transnistria region. That territory is coordinated, subsidized and fed militarily by Russia. For more than 34-35 years, the Republic of Moldova has had this torment, has dealt with this threat. Let’s not forget that in 1992, 300 Romanians were killed by Russians because they wanted the Romanian language, they wanted the Romanian language to be taught in the schools where their children study, and that’s why they were killed. However, this threat of Russia, which we see in Transnistria, which we see in the barbarous invasion of Ukraine, must be deterred by such models. No matter how small the country is, no matter how small Maia Sandu may seem, if you have courage, determination, and Western support, behold, it is possible. The stake is for this people to be free, to no longer be prey to repeated Russian invasions, as has happened throughout history, and to exist in the west of Romania, let’s say in the same model as in the east of Romania. That is, let there be peace, democracy, stability around our borders, let us not sit all the time with a sword over our heads and an aggressive Russian military presence at the gates of Romania and NATO.”

The stake is freedom, democracy and, last but not least, peace and security, says Radu Tudor, because, by supporting the Republic of Moldova, we are supporting ourselves, in order to remove as much as possible from our borders the most destabilizing factor for European security, which it is Russia.