Inflation goes slightly down
Romania finished the year 2025 with a 7.3% average annual inflation rate
Daniela Budu, 15.01.2026, 13:50
Inflation in Romania saw a slight decrease at the end of 2025, after reaching a psychological two-digit peak. According to data released on Wednesday by the National Statistics Institute, the year-on-year inflation rate in December 2025 compared to December 2024 was 9.7%. Over the whole of last year, the rate was 7.32%, as against 5.6% in 2024, with service tariffs rising the most, followed by non-foodstuffs and food prices.
According to the INS, the five steepest price rises were reported for electricity (almost 61%), rail transport and coffee (about 24%), heating and air transport (over 18% each).
Compared to November 2025, when Romania was the country with the highest inflation in the European Union, INS data points to a slight decrease in the last month of the year. Financial analysts say that we are witnessing the beginning of a slow decrease in inflation. But they also believe that the risk of new tax raises this year remains high, in the context of the government’s effort to reduce Romania’s budget deficit.
The financial analyst Adrian Codirlaşu, the head of CFA Romania, the organisation of the country’s investment professionals, told Radio Romania:
Adrian Codirlaşu: “We see in December the first notable drop in the inflation rate, still very small, but nonetheless notable compared to previous months. We basically see the start of this disinflation process, which will be slow. That is, we should not expect inflation to fall quickly and by much. It will fall slowly, with somewhat more important effects in the second half of this year. We have had tax increases starting this year as well. While for cars, apartments and houses they have not shown in inflation, because these tax increases are not included in any component, people’s purchasing power is clearly decreasing. On the other hand, fuel excise duties, which rose as of January 1, will reflect in January’s inflation rate. So fiscal policy remains the main risk. CFA Romania expects the end of this year to see an inflation rate between 6 and 7%, unless significant new tax increases are introduced.”
According to the latest forecast by the National Bank of Romania, the annual inflation is expected to decrease significantly as of August, after the effects of the VAT increase have worn off, then reach 3.7% at the end of this year and possibly return to the central bank’s target range, of 1.5-3.5% in the first quarter of 2027 at the soonest. (AMP)
