Inflation scenarios
The NBR estimates that inflation will rise more than anticipated in the second quarter
Corina Cristea, 02.03.2026, 13:50
The National Bank of Romania has announced that it expects inflation to worsen, with a more pronounced increase than anticipated in April, May, and June. According to the Central Bank, inflation is expected to rise to around 10% in June and then fall to 4% in December. According to the NBR, inflation is not expected to fall to 2.9% until the end of next year.
The new estimates come less than two weeks after the NBR presented its quarterly inflation report, in which the Central Bank revised its inflation forecast for the end of this year upward to 3.9% from 3.7% previously and anticipated that it would reach 2.7% in 2027. According to the report presented by the governor of the National Bank, Mugur Isărescu, after inflation continues to decline slowly in the first quarter of this year, this indicator will rise again in the next three months. The NBR experts’ explanation for this development is the elimination of the ceiling on commercial markups on basic foodstuffs, compounded by the effects of higher energy prices and excise duties since last fall.
In contrast, for the third quarter of this year, the NBR anticipated a sharp decline in inflation, which would then fall within the bank’s target range from the middle of the first half of 2027. This trend will be supported by both the budget correction and the decline in consumption, according to the report approved by the Central Bank’s management. Mugur Isărescu stressed that the NBR could not reduce the key interest rate because, although such a measure would probably have led to a faster decline in inflation, it would also have caused the economy to enter a recession, which is undesirable, especially given that the budget deficit needs to be corrected.
The level of public debt, which exceeded 60% of the GDP for the first time, is high and should be reduced, the governor said, even though such a level does not mean that Romania is in danger of defaulting on its payments. Mugur Isărescu has also stressed that public investment, especially from European funds, should be the basis for economic growth, not other tax breaks, possibly spread over 10-20 years, adding that political stability is also needed in order to continue measures to reduce the budget deficit.
On the other hand, Romania could begin discussions on setting a date for joining the Eurozone in five years, according to the governor, who believes that there is, however, one condition for this to be possible: the program to reduce the budget deficit to below 3% of the GDP must bear fruit. (MI)
