Voting intentions ahead of the European elections

The left and the right in Romania are in effect tied in the competition for the European elections according to a recent opinion poll

Ştefan Stoica, 22.03.2019, 13:36

It’s hardly news anymore, but the
latest opinion poll confirms it: Romanians are more pessimistic about the
direction their country is taking and more optimistic about that of Europe.

A poll conducted by INSCOP Research
between the 5th and the 13th of March and commissioned by
the Konrad Adenauer Foundation indicates that almost three quarters of
Romanians, namely 73%, believe their country is heading in the wrong direction,
while only 18% say it is heading in the right direction.

The perception of the direction
Romania is taking remains strongly negative, note the authors of the poll.
Things are different as far as the perception of Europe is concerned. Compared
with last year, significantly more Romanians believe things in Europe are
heading in the right direction.

Most respondents, namely around 47%,
believe Europe is heading in the right direction, while 35% believe the
opposite is true. The proximity of European elections, which are scheduled to
take place on the 26th of May, Romania’s taking over the presidency
of the Council of the European Union and the series of events this entails, as
well as the procedures for the appointment of the future European prosecutor, a
position for which the former head of the National Anticorruption Directorate
Laura Codruta Kovesi is a candidate, seem to have improved the perception of
Europe, the poll has shown.

The INSCOP poll has measured voting
intentions two months ahead of the European elections. The main parties on the
local political scene, the governing Social Democratic Party, and the largest
opposition party, the National Liberal Party, are neck and neck in this race.
The Social Democrats are credited with 26.9% of voting intentions and the
Liberals with 26.3%. Third, with a little over 15%, comes the Alliance 2020 USR
and PLUS.

This is the first poll that measures
voting intentions for this alliance formed by the Save Romania Union, in the
parliamentary opposition, and PLUS, a party led by the former technocratic
prime minister Dacian Ciolos. The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats, the
junior partner in the ruling coalition, and Pro Romania, the party created by
the Social Democrat dissidents and led by the former Social Democrat prime
minister Victor Ponta are credited with some 9%, while the Democratic Union of
Ethnic Hungarians in Romania with 5%.

The People’s Movement Party, whose
most prominent member is the former president Traian Basescu, would not make it
to the European Parliament. According to INSCOP, the results of the European
elections will be further influenced by factors that cannot be measured in an
opinion poll.

These factors include voter mobilisation,
impactful events such as also holding a referendum on the day of the vote,
which is almost certain to happen according to the president, the final
candidate lists and voter turnout at home and abroad. As compared with
February, there is a slight increase in the number of eligible voters who say
they are definitely going to vote, INSCOP also notes.