The National Bank of Romania maintains the key interest rate

The monetary policy interest rate stays at 6.5% per year.

Ştefan Stoica, 08.04.2026, 13:50

The Board of Directors of the National Bank decided, in its quarterly meeting on Tuesday, to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 6.5% per year. The decision was taken against a complicated economic backdrop, with high inflation, a slowdown in economic growth rate and an uncertain international context.

The move was expected by  analysts and confirms the central bank’s cautious strategy as it tries to keep inflation in check without further affecting economic growth. The inflation rate saw a slight drop  at the beginning of the year, to 9.31% in February, but the National Bank warns that this trend could be temporarily interrupted, as the rise in energy prices owing to the conflict in the Middle East may again push prices up in the next few months. Flavius ​​Jakubowicz, the president of the Association of Financial and Banking Analysts in Romania explains:

“It’s a decision that shows constancy and caution and which in effect sends a clear signal that this is not the time for monetary easing. The rise in energy costs was unexpected and had not been budgeted with respect to the economy and budget substantiation”. The National Bank warns of significant risks arising from the fiscal area, as well as from international developments, including the global energy crisis. In this context, the central bank is trying to maintain price stability, even if this will mean slower economic growth. High interest rates discourage consumption and lending, but help reduce inflation, in a process that economists see as necessary.

The result is controlled, albeit slower, economic growth. According to financial analyst Flavius ​​Jakubowicz, the economy is undergoing an adjustment phase, slowing down in a controlled manner to allow the inflation rate to fall in a sustainable way. In his opinion, the most likely scenario is maintaining interest rates in the first part of the year, with possible reductions in the second half of 2026, if inflation falls more significantly.

However, the possibility of the key interest rate to be increased is not ruled out either, if the inflation rate accelerates again or in the event of additional pressures on the exchange rate and on financial markets. In the short term, the National Bank even estimates a possible rise in the inflation rate in the March-June period, as a result of higher fuel prices and the effects of recent fiscal measures.

Tensions on financial markets have grown in recent weeks and the state’s financing costs have increased amid the perception of risk in the region. Under the circumstances, the central bank is standing by, while closely keeping an eye on domestic and external developments, and what will happen to interest rates will depend mainly on the evolution of inflation and the general economic stability.