Outlook for the economy
Romania's National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis estimates a slowdown in economic growth for the year 2026.
Mihai Pelin, 09.06.2026, 13:50
The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP) estimates for 2026 a decrease in economic growth of 0.9%, from 1% in the previous forecast to 0.1%, as a result of current macroeconomic conditions. Thus, the Gross Domestic Product is projected at 2.056 trillion lei (about 395 billion euros), compared to 1.916 trillion lei (about 368 billion euros) in 2025, according to the Projection of Main Macroeconomic Indicators 2026–2029.
The medium term outlook was drafted in a difficult geopolitical context, with uncertainties amplified by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a major energy shock on the global market. The inflationary effect caused by rising fuel prices overlapped with domestic efforts to correct macroeconomic imbalances through continued budget consolidation measures, which has worsened the outlook for the current year, CNSP notes.
An unfavorable evolution is also expected in the services sector, with the impact of fiscal consolidation measures being more pronounced in certain categories of services, especially those intended for household consumers. At the same time, construction remains the most dynamic sector, supported mainly by engineering construction, stimulated by the absorption of European funds, as well as by a recovery in residential construction recorded in the first part of the year.
On the expenditure side, a more significant slowdown in private consumption is expected in 2026 than previously forecast. In the medium term, estimates for economic growth remain unchanged for the 2027–2029 period, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.2%, supported mainly by continued investment development. At the same time, private consumption, after the decline in 2026, will grow at an average annual rate higher than that of GDP, due to the gradual reduction of the effects of budget consolidation. According to the CNSP forecast, net exports will have a slightly negative contribution to economic growth in the medium term, as the average growth rate of imports of goods and services will outpace that of exports, following the recovery of domestic demand.
International financial institutions are also cautious regarding Romania’s economy. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts a recession in 2026 and has worsened its outlook for GDP this year, indicating a decline of 0.2%, according to its latest report. In February, the forecast was for 1.2% growth. The European Commission has also reduced its growth forecast, from 1.1% to just 0.1%. The World Bank and the IMF have done the same. The IMF revised its estimate from 1.4% to 0.7%, while the World Bank revised its forecast from 1.3% to only 0.5%. (EE)
