Fitch has affirmed Romania’s IDRs at ‘BBB –
Fitch rating agency has affirmed Romania’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at ‘BBB’- with Negative Outlooks
Mihai Pelin, 03.08.2026, 14:00
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Romania’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at ‘BBB’- with Negative Outlooks, and has cautioned against a possible failure in the implementation of fiscal consolidation measures and the deterioration of the macroeconomic stability, which might lead to a lower rating. Fitch has based its decision to keep Romania only one notch above the ‘junk’ category not recommended for investment, mainly on the political uncertainty due to the government’s collapse, as it casts a question mark upon the efforts, albeit appreciated by evaluators, of curbing the budget deficit.
The agency believes that the social costs of some measures aimed at reducing the deficit and political considerations ahead of the 2028 Parliamentary election, could make the progress even more fragile.
According to the agency, in 2026, the budget deficit will stay around 5.9% of the GDP under the 6% target and will reach five percent only in 2028. Fitch has also mentioned the risk of the rising public debt, which will exert more pressure on the state due to the inflation rate and the local currency depreciation, since 53% of the aforementioned debt accounts for hard currency.
The agency has forecast an economic growth of 0.6% this year, and 2.3% in 2028. The inflation rate will stay around 7.6% in 2026 and is expected to drop to 3.8% two years later. Romania’s President, Nicuşor Dan, has hailed the latest Fitch report, which confirms the country’s stability and has mentioned a political agreement on the main economic and reform objectives such as keeping Romania’s financial trajectory, setting the 2027 budget and switching to the euro.
The head of the Romanian state has acknowledged the present economic difficulties, but has conveyed a message of confidence and trust. Romania is functioning in spite of the political noise, Dan says. In turn, the country’s interim Finance Minister, Alexandru Nazare, says that Romania has solid financial arguments but the most sensitive issue remains its political situation. Fitch has cautioned against a protracted political gridlock, which could hinder reforms implementation and postpone the PNRR reforms that could increase pressure on the rating.
In another development, the president of the CFA Romania Association, Adrian Codirlaşu, believes Romania has barely avoided a downgrade and the Fitch rating is actually indicative of worsening economic prospects. In his opinion the decision to maintain the rating was possible because the government proved its ability to control public expenditures but cautions that the lack of reforms, the risk of losing European funds and the possibility of relapsing to higher deficits are keeping the economy in a vulnerable situation. Romania is not out of the danger of a downgrade yet because after Fitch, Moody’s rating is expected on Friday and after all these, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings is expected to have its say in October.
(bill)
