Syria – A Hot Spot on the World Map

Apparently the Middle East issue remains one of the hot spots on the foreign agenda in 2013. Political and military analyst Serban Cioculescu tries to predict the developments in the area.

Corina Cristea, 11.01.2013, 12:49

Serban Cioculescu: “This is probably the most volatile and most unpredictable area on the globe. The situation has been dangerous and unstable for a very long time, a situation that, since the cold war ended, has evolved along very unstable coordinates. On the one hand, as we all know, there is a very dangerous mix there of Islamic fundamentalism, authoritarian regimes, weapons of mass destruction, religious extremism and a large-scale demographic explosion. At the same time, because of its rich oil and natural gas reserves, the area is permanently in the focus of attention of the foreign powers and this thwarts working out solutions to suit both the local population and the local governments. Here we can think of the very well known Arab Spring phenomenon of 2011-2012, which breathed some fresh air and somehow laid the foundation for the democratization of the region and for eliminating totalitarian regimes, monarchies or despotic presidential regimes. On the other hand, however, it also brought to power mostly Islamist groups, even though some of them are moderate, therefore many wondered whether the Arab Spring was more of an Islamist Spring.”

One hot spot on the foreign agenda is Syria. Experts and PhD professors specializing in post-conflict management, members of the Syrian opposition coalition, representatives of Arab countries and of international organizations have this week been invited to attend a closed-door meeting, organized in Sussex, in the south of Great Britain, and focusing on Syria. The spokesperson for the Foreign Office, the one that organized the event said that they were doing their best to put an end to violence in Syria and to ensure a genuine political transaction

There are many voices claiming that president Bashar al Assad will soon leave, just like those calling on the international community to prepare the grounds for the aftermath of Bashar’s leaving. The al Assad regime’s crackdown on the popular uprising triggered a civil war in Syria, and the violent clashes between rebels and the regime loyalists continue. Over 60 thousand people, mostly civilians, have been killed since the start of the conflict in this country, in March 2011.

The announcement has been made recently by the office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, and the figures were 25% higher than the ones released on a regular basis by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The United Nations announced, on the other hand, that around one million Syrians are affected by a food shortage caused by governmental restrictions on the delivery of aid. The UN World Food Programme helps 1.5 million Syrians every month, but this figure is one million below the estimated number of Syrians that need aid.

The United Nations also estimated that during the almost two years since the conflict broke out, 550 thousand Syrians were forced to leave their country, with around 160 thousand of them finding shelter in Lebanon alone. Against the background of this humanitarian disaster, the hopes created by president Bashar al Assad’s promises to end the violence seem to have been shattered once again by the Damascus leader’s latest speech.

The Syrian president proposed a political plan according to which he remains in power, but this solution was turned down by the coalition in Opposition, which demands his stepping down as a prerequisite to any talks towards the resolution of the conflict. The international community was quick to respond. According to a spokesperson for the US State Department, Victoria Nallan, the speech given by Al Assad—whose initiative involves the establishment of a national charter to be subject to a referendum before the election of a new parliament and a new government—is a new attempt by the regime to cling on to power, and not an effort to take measures that would pave the way for political transition.

The British foreign secretary, William Hague, believes the Syrian leader is responsible for the violence in the country, and a similar message came from Berlin as well, where foreign minister Guido Westerwelle said Bashar al Assad’s speech revealed his lack of awareness as regards the current situation. The USA and EU have reiterated calls on Assad to step down, to allow a democratic transition in Syria, while the president of Egypt, Mohamed Morssi, said he supported the request of the Syrian people to send Al Assad to court for war crimes.