Ramifications of the war in Ukraine

The director of the New Strategy Center examines how the conflict could affect Romania

Corina Cristea, 06.10.2023, 14:00

Close to Romania’s
borders, Russia’s war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending anytime soon. Russian
attacks using suicide drones, more often than not delivered by Iran, are
carried out every night, and fragments from these drones often end up on
Romanian territory as well. It is clear to everyone that in the near future
Moscow is unlikely to stop its attacks, targeting ports on the Danube in
particular and designed to destroy port infrastructure. The reason is just as
simple to grasp: Russia wants to hamper the export of Ukrainian grain, which is
Ukraine’s main source of income right now. George Scutaru, the director of New
Strategy Center, told us more.

Russia is turning
Ukrainian grain into a weapon. Russia wants to create instability in Africa and
displace a new wave of refugee towards Europe in order to create additional
pressure, by turning grain into a weapon. Ukraine’s revenues right now are
first and foremost reliant on grain exports. 85% of Ukrainian grain exports to
global markets transit Romania. Russia wants to stifle Ukrainian economy and
replace its contribution to global grain markets, thus depriving this country
of the necessary resources for the war effort. This is also the reason behind
the daily shelling of port infrastructure, and we can see how aggressive Russia
can be in terms of bombing certain targets, certain Ukrainian ports, such as
Reni, Izmail or Kiliia, close to Romania’s borders.

Western support for
Ukraine has been made clear ever since the start of the Russian aggression, and
has translated into sustained deliveries of weapons and assistance, George
Scutaru also told Radio Romania.

This is not a war
pitting just the Russian Federation against Ukraine. It is basically a war
between autocracy and democracy. A defeat for Ukraine would spell the defeat of
every country that supports Ukraine. And obviously, such a perspective would
encourage countries such as Iran, North Korea and China to become more assertive
on the global stage. For this reason, it is essential that Romanians understand
why we have to provide this support to Ukraine. And let me be clear: the
alternative would be that Romania cuts its support partly or totally, and as a
result the Russians would control the Danube or, God forbid, the Prut. So,
Romania has no choice: despite all the conflicts and differences we’ve had with
the Ukrainians in the last 30 years, it is better for us to have an
independent, democratic country, a country anchored in NATO and the EU as our
neighbor instead of the Russians. By supporting Ukraine, it is also important
for us to make sure the Republic of Moldova also preserves its independence.
Therefore, here is one direct consequence for Romania.

We cannot remain passive
or neutral. We are siding with a country that has been attacked, and our
passivity or neutrality would encourage the aggressor to carry further their
diabolical plan of occupying a free country. Sooner or later, the war will end
and we need to know what the region would look like post-conflict, George
Scutaru went on to say.

If Russia is condemned
by international courts of law, Ukraine might get access to the Russian
Federation’s frozen assets in a number of Western states. We’re talking about
over 320 billion that might be channeled in the reconstruction of Ukraine,
alongside donations from independent countries or sources. This is a big part
of the future reconstruction of Ukraine. And I would like to point out the
following fact: as Ukraine’s neighbor, Romania should not miss the opportunity
of playing an important role in the reconstruction process. We are part of
NATO, and global companies with an interest of getting involved in the
reconstruction of Ukraine could locate part of their activity in Romania. We
are also close to Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, which were all hit hard in the war.
And starting 2027, Romania could become the EU’s biggest gas producer, as
exploitation works will start in the Black Sea, so we will also have the
necessary energy reserves.

For the time being, we
need to be aware the war will not be over soon. There is no sign any of the
belligerents are willing to end the war in the coming months, and there is
still heavy fighting on the frontline, as Ukraine tries to break past Russia’s
defenses. Putin too wants the war to continue, George Scutaru believes.

Over the coming period,
Russia will try to undermine support for Ukraine. Romania and other states in
the EU, the USA will host elections, and Russia has always tried to interfere
with the election processes. It will try to double its efforts in order to cut
back on support for Ukraine. In the end, I am confident that if democratic
countries stick together and continue to deliver military, financial, economic
and political assistance to Kyiv, Ukraine will prevail.

The other option is to
see a dictatorship defeating a coalition of democratic states, says George
Scutaru, the director of New Strategy Center. (VP)