Romania’s financial-banking market is recovering
After the negative reaction last week, caused by the first round of the presidential election, Romania’s financial-banking market is in full recovery process
Sorin Iordan, 14.05.2025, 14:00
Romania’s financial-banking market is now in full process of recovery after the emotional reaction following the results of the first round of the presidential election on May 4th. The negative reaction last week also sent ripples through the Stock Exchange influencing the exchange and interest rates for both the natural persons and the credits accessed by the Romanian state
The currency market is presently in a full process of regaining its balance. Last week the euro exceeded the psychological threshold of 5 RON. Now the exchange rate announced by the Central Bank stays around 5.9 RON from a 5.12 last week. However, it still is way above the 4.97 RON level it had before the first presidential round.
The recovery was also felt on the inter-banking market where the ROBOR index, used for the calculation of the consumption credits, went slightly down to 7.2% from an initial 7.31%. Before the election though, the ROBOR stood at 5.9%. Financial analyst Dragos Cabat is convinced that against this background, the Romanians must brace themselves for higher taxes.
Dragoş Cabat: “It’s almost a certainty that taxes will get higher and so will the VAT in the following period, and as a result we are going to see rising prices and a growing inflation rate. After that period, towards the end of the year, if the situation normalizes and Romania manages to avoid lower ratings by rating agencies, the inflation will also know a downward trend.”
Dragoş Cabat explains that usually in late summer and early autumn, the inflation goes down as a result of the fresh harvest and the abundance of agricultural products. In April, the inflation rate went slightly down as compared to the previous month being around 4.85%, but Cabat has drawn attention to the fact that against the background of political and economic uncertainties the inflation might increase again.
The latest recovery of Romania’s financial-banking market has also been felt at the local Stock Exchange, which seems to have regained its equilibrium, in spite of the persisting volatility. The Stock Exchange closed its Tuesday’s session on the rise after last week it opened and closed its transaction sessions in the red.
Here is again analyst Dragoş Cabat:
Dragos Cabat: “In terms of the Stock Exchange, this very strong emotional component made the prices to go down, but now the prices are going up again and the situation improves while investors will eventually accept that we can face this reality irrespective of who wins and who doesn’t, and no matter what is happening on the market, you know. “
And since Romania’s economy is presently in an unstable equilibrium, economic pundits are drawing attention to the fact that any unexpected moves can trigger new market reactions.
(bill)
