Panorama 03.10.2025

Euranet Plus Panorama is a weekly news review that showcases our network’s wide-ranging coverage of EU-related stories.

Radio România Internațional, 06.10.2025, 09:53

Moldovans look West

Last weekend, a small nation state of great symbolic importance went to the polls. The outcome of the election has left Europe beaming and Moscow with egg on its face.

Moldovan president Maia Sandu’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity, which has been in power since 2021, won a fraction over 50 per cent of the vote in the country’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, 28 September, thanks in particular to strong support from the diaspora.

Ineffectual interference

The pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc lagged a considerable way behind, taking just under a quarter of the vote, in an election that saw the highest turnout in this EU candidate country’s recent history.

Based on the latest projections, despite losing a number of seats, Sandu’s party looks to keep its majority in Parliament, thereby continuing to govern without the need for a coalition.

Lithuania’s ambassador to Moldova, Tadas Valionis, tells Žinių Radijas why this was far from a foregone conclusion.

Tadas Valionis, Lithuanian Ambassador to Moldova (in Lithuanian):
“Moldova has already paid a heavy price for disconnecting from Russia. It has begun to build new lines, stopped buying energy from Russia, and started buying gas on the EU market. It has paid for this with huge inflation. Inflation that, in 2022, reached 30 per cent. This has hit people hard over the past couple of years. And the benefits of rapprochement with the European Union will only come much later. In other words, Moldova has already paid the price, but has not yet started to feel the benefits. Because of this, there was great uncertainty about how people would vote.”

Of course, this major decoupling from Russia has not been seen in the breakaway, Moscow-backed region of Transnistria.

Manuel Poêjo Torres, a Portuguese political scientist who specialises in international affairs and consults for NATO, offers a word of caution in an interview with Rádio Renascença. He senses that the pro-Europeans’ victory, but with reduced parliamentary clout, may further exacerbate the already tense relations between Russia and the West.

Manuel Poêjo Torres, Political Scientist (in Portuguese):
“This is undoubtedly another source of tension, because in these elections they won with more than 50 per cent of the vote, but only secured 55 seats. So there has been an erosion that leads to the conclusion that there has been socio-political wear and tear in Moldova’s political and electoral arena. This leads to other considerations, concerning Russia’s position, as it will not want to lose another satellite region in what is its broad, vast and deep hybrid war campaign against its direct adversaries, namely the Western democracies of the European Union.”

Although marred by accusations of Russian interference, the election was ultimately declared “competitive” by the Election Observation Mission, which included a delegation from the European Parliament. Yet they did also highlight cases of foreign interference, illegal money, cyberattacks, and a lot of disinformation at play during the election process.

Kuku Raadio speaks to Gert Antsu, Estonia’s special envoy for the Eastern Partnership, who claims that Russia contributed hundreds of millions of euros to pre-election influence activities in an – ultimately unsuccessful – bid to steer Moldovans in a different direction.

Gert Antsu, Estonia’s Special Envoy for the Eastern Partnership (in Estonian):
“There is a whole spectrum of influence activities. Many have said that Moldova is a testing ground for Russian hybrid activities. Indeed, from the church and the usual vote-buying to, of course, influencing the information space by spreading all kinds of narratives and false information. Fortunately, they turned the screw [too far] at times and this backfired.”

What does he mean by this?

Gert Antsu, Estonia’s Special Envoy for the Eastern Partnership (in Estonian):
“Compared to previous years, it has become more difficult [for the Russians]. Moldova’s state structures have become stronger, and the buying and selling of votes has been criminalised. It is no longer very sensible to sell your vote for ten euros when you can expect a stiff penalty for doing so. The same goes for bringing cash in from Russia, which has become much more difficult. Cryptocurrencies and other alternatives have had to be used, but Moldova has been quite successful in combatting this too. This is one reason why the Russian campaign did not have the desired effect.”

Messages of congratulations and support have flooded in from around the bloc. Here, for example, is Nicușor Dan, the president of Romania.

Nicușor Dan, President of Romania (in Romanian):
“I want to assure all citizens of the Republic of Moldova, regardless of their political opinion, that Romania will continue to help Moldova on its European path and will continue with projects that will bring prosperity and a better quality of life.”

On the subject of that “European path”, Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, writing on X on Monday, said the Moldovans had made a clear choice for “Europe. Democracy. Freedom” and that “Our door is open”.

But is that really true? For a start, is the case for EU integration an open-and-shut one in the eyes of the Moldovan populace?

Moldova is a particularly symbolic case of the struggle between Europe and Russia, says France’s euradio. There is a military struggle underway, of course, in neighbouring Ukraine, but also an ideological one in the whole of this strategically important region.

So, in the run-up to Sunday’s election, our French colleagues spoke to Florent Parmentier, a political scientist and author of a recent report on Moldova published by France’s Institute of Foreign Relations. He paints a slightly more nuanced picture.

Florent Parmentier, Political Scientist (in French):
“Moldovan public opinion is largely in favour of European integration, yet – and this is perhaps surprising, especially in this region […] – it is not in favour of NATO. There is a real dichotomy between the European promise of a better life, guaranteed freedoms and democracy, and the choice of military alliances in a country that is traditionally rather neutralist.”

And the Moldovans’ fondness for neutrality is, Parmentier goes on to explain, being used by the opposition to challenge their pro-European path.

Florent Parmentier, Political Scientist (in French):
“You have European integration that is being criticised by the opposition. They are saying – and I think this is the key point – that European integration as proposed by Maia Sandu is ultimately risking drawing Moldova into the war in Ukraine. There is therefore a desire on the part of the opposition to take stock of this European integration – some wanting to reject it outright and others simply wanting to impose a number of conditions. And one essential condition would be to resume dialogue with Russia.”

This is something that Maia Sandu is reluctant to push for, for fear of tarnishing her pro-European credentials.

And what about the second part of the Commission chief’s congratulatory message: that the EU’s door is open to Moldova?

Former European commissioner and current MEP Virginijus Sinkevičius says that he personally sees no reason for Moldova not to join the EU, but he tells our Lithuanian colleagues that the bloc needs to stop shifting the goalposts.

Virginijus Sinkevičius, Member of the European Parliament – Greens-EFA, Lithuania (in Lithuanian):
„The people of Moldova have sent a very clear message. And I think that we need to respond to this message in Brussels and the capitals of Europe. Because you cannot lead citizens, societies, by the nose, so to speak, and then constantly shift the goalposts. Just when it seems that they are about to score, the goalposts are moved back several dozen metres. So at this point, it is very important that we respond [positively] to this message. I do not see, to be honest, a big stumbling block for Moldova joining the European Union.”

He goes on to stress that, with a population of just three million, Moldova is not a large country, so it would not be difficult to integrate it economically, adding that many of its citizens already enjoy EU citizenship through Romania. He does acknowledge, however, that Transnistria remains a challenge.

The strain of Ukraine

On Monday, President Sandu described her party’s victory as “a strong mandate” for Moldovan accession to the EU, and this election result would seem to cement the country’s pro-European trajectory.

That same day, Commission spokesperson Guillaume Mercier reiterated that, in the view of the Brussels executive, both Moldova and Ukraine are ready to start formal accession negotiations.

Guillaume Mercier, European Commission Spokesperson (in English):
“Our position is that we should open cluster one for Ukraine and Moldova. They have done the work. They have met the criteria, meaning the roadmap on the rule of law and the action plan on minorities for Ukraine. So, the opening of Cluster 1 should happen without any further delay.”

Given Hungary’s insistence on wielding its veto to block Ukraine’s progress, Moldova’s accession prospects arguably look stronger than those of its neighbour as things currently stand. Yet the Hungarian stance on Ukraine will also stymie Moldova since the two nations are being treated as a unit.

With the Commission’s attempts to force Budapest’s hand by withholding funds proving ineffectual, the president of the European Council, António Costa, recently put his own proposal on the table: a plan to bypass the need for unanimity when it comes to launching the first stage of negotiations. Every member state would still retain its veto at subsequent stages of the process, but this could at least get these two countries’ accession wheels in motion.

As Luxembourg’s 100,7 reports, this and another unanimity-bypass proposal relating to the use of Russian state assets to finance defence in Ukraine were up for discussion at an informal summit taking place in Copenhagen this week. But it seems that the idea was shot down by several member states… so it may be back to the drawing board.

And this to the detriment of the entire process, as Guillaume Mercier observes.

Guillaume Mercier, European Commission Spokesperson (in English):
“When a country is held back for no objective reason, despite meeting the criteria, the credibility of the entire enlargement process is at risk.”

Patience is sure to be wearing thin. If the EU wants to keep Moldovans looking West, something has to give.