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Ştefan Stoica, 19.04.2021, 14:00

Standard
& Poor’s maintains Romania’s rating at BBB-/A-3 for its long and short-term
debt in hard currency and the local currency. It also improved its outlook from
negative to stable, as the finance ministry in Bucharest announced with
satisfaction. This is the first positive revision of Romania’s outlook by Standard
& Poor’s since November 2013. The agency says in a statement that it improved
the country’s outlook because it believes that the short-term risks facing
Romania have decreased. The government that came to power after the parliamentary
elections last December has postponed a hike in pensions legislated by the
previous Parliament and embarked on a consolidation process that will ensure
that the country’s government and external debt stocks remain moderate through
2024, the agency also said.

Standard
& Poor’s expects Romania’s economy to grow by 5% this year and remain steady
for the next two years, based on the recovery of private consumption and an
uptick in investments, especially in the public sector. The latter will be
supported by the government’s multiyear programme for infrastructure
investment, under which public spending is to increase by 15% in 2021, which
will boost investment-to-GDP ratio to a record level of 5.5%, Standard &
Poor’s also says.

The
agency warns, however, that the application of the government’s investment plan
will depend on the absorption of the allocated European funds and in order to
access them, Romania will need to draft eligible projects and carry out reforms.
On the other hand, economic forecasts are still sensitive to the evolution of
the coronavirus pandemic. Standard & Poor’s emphasises that the success of
vaccination programmes, both domestic and global, will be key in determining the
extent to which the Romanian economy can reopen. With regard to government deficit,
Standard & Poor’s is projecting a level of 7% of GDP this year, with fiscal
policy adapting gradually in a bid to assist short-term economic recovery. Also,
the fiscal deficit will reduce to 3% of GDP in 2024 supported by the government’s
medium-run consolidation objectives and economic recovery.

The decision of Standard & Poor’s is
proof of the international recognition of Romania’s efforts to ensure fiscal
and budget consolidation and confirms that we adopted the right measures, the
measures that the country needed and which were expected by its foreign
partners, said the Romanian finance minister Alexandru Nazare. He gave
assurances that Bucharest will both continue efforts to implement the measures to
eliminate the negative effects of the coronavirus pandemic and boost economic
recovery and pursue a cautious fiscal and budget policy to ensure Romania achieves
its targets. (CM)